Another recent perfect Pagosa Country evening – Pic taken 10/25/2024
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Monday – 28 Oct 2024 – 6:45pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature Sunday was 68. The low this morning was 34.
The peak wind at Stevens Field on Sunday was 12mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 59 | 73 / 1990 | 23 | 5 / 1955 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent precip.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Mountain snow, and mostly valley “rainflakes” Monday night into Wednesday morning. ***
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the southwest San Juan Mountains above 9,000ft. Up to 12” of snow and winds gusting to 45mph are expected to 6am Wednesday. ***
*** Roads could be slick in the valley Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. ***
*** Wednesday night/Thursday morning will be chilly with temps down to 10 in the cold spots. ***
Monday night through Wednesday morning… A trough and cold front will move through Colorado. It will dip far enough south for us to get some decent precip.
Precip will be snow in the mountains and mostly rain in the valley. Moisture and precip will decrease as the snow level drops to the valley floor late Tuesday afternoon into the evening.
Timing…
Showers will develop over the mountains late Monday evening and then over the valley after midnight. The heaviest precip will fall early Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. A band of thunderstorms is possible along the cold front early Tuesday afternoon. Precip will taper off with hit and miss showers into Wednesday morning.
Snow levels…
Monday night: 10,500ft dropping to 9,500ft by sunrise Tuesday
Tuesday morning to sunset on Tuesday: 9,500ft dropping to 7,500ft
Tuesday night: 7,500ft dropping to 6,500ft
Wednesday morning: 5,500-6,000ft
Snow amounts…
Mountains above 9,000ft: 10-15”
Valley above 7,800ft: up to 1”
Valley below 7,800ft: up to a half inch
Winds… Monday night there will be occasional gusts in the 15-20mph range in the valley and 40-45mph in the mountains. *** Tuesday gusts to 30-35mph are likely in the valley and gusts 50-55mph are possible in the mountains. *** Winds will taper off Tuesday evening.
Temps… Lows Monday night will be in the mid-30s to low 40s. Highs Tuesday will be in the low to high 40s and lows Tuesday night will be in the high teens to high 20s.
Precip and snow amounts have trended down.
Wednesday afternoon through Saturday… A transient ridge will keep us dry and push occasional mid and upper-level clouds through our area. Clouds will increase Saturday when the ridge moves to our east.
Winds…Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Temps… Highs Wednesday will be in the high 30s to high 40s and *** lows Wednesday night will be 10-20. *** Highs Thursday will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows Thursday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Friday and Saturday highs will be in the low 50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.
Sunday through Wednesday… A cut-off low will set up over northern Mexico and southern AZ. It will be too far to our south to deliver good precip, but it will keep our weather unsettled with periods of showers. Right now it looks like precip amounts will be low.
There is still a lot of uncertainty with this storm. I’ll tackle the details as the data gets better.
I’ll do a forecast each day through Wednesday.
– Shawn
