Pagosa Peak poking out between the clouds – pic taken 10/18/2024
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Friday – 18 Oct 2024 – 11:30am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature Thursday was 53. The low this morning was 42.
The peak wind at Stevens Field on Thursday was 7mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 63 | 80 / 1951 | 25 | 8 / 1968 |
Precipitation summary… Bands of showers continue to move through the area. Last night the snow level was around 10,000ft. I estimate that Wolf Creek got another 2-3” of snow and storm total for peaks above timberline is in 6-12” range.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** SIGNIFICANT SNOW is possible for the mountains into Sunday evening. The valley will get a little snow too. ***
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for the southwest San Juan Mountains above 8,500ft. 12-24” of snow and winds gusting to 45mph are expected. Peaks above timberline could get up to 36”. The warning is valid until Sunday at noon. ***
Rest of Friday through Sunday… A low-pressure system will spin over the Four Corners region Friday through late Sunday afternoon. Waves of storm energy and moisture will move through our area and kick up showers and an occasional thunderstorm.
Precip will be heavy at times. All types of precip are possible: rain, snow, graupel, and small hail.
Timing…
Friday morning into Sunday afternoon the low will spin over AZ and send waves of showers and an occasional thunderstorm our way. Snow will fall heavily in the mountains at times.
Late Sunday afternoon showers will taper off over the valley, and then later Sunday evening, showers will taper off over the mountains.
Snow levels…
Friday during the day: around 10,000ft
Friday night: 10,000ft dropping to 9,000ft
Saturday during the day: 9,000ft increasing to 10,000ft
Saturday night: 10,000ft dropping to 9,000ft
Sunday during the day: around 9,000ft
Sunday night: 7,500-8000ft
Additional snow amounts:
Mountains above 11,500ft: up to 24”
Mountains: 9,500-11,500ft: 14” to 20”
Valley above 8,500ft: 2” to 4”
Valley 8,000-8,500ft: up to 2”
Valley below 8,000ft: up to a half inch
Winds… Friday afternoon occasional gusts in the 20-30mph range with showers and thunderstorms. Saturday and Sunday gusts will be 15-20mph.
Temps… Friday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s. Saturday highs will be in the mid-40 to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. Sunday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.
Monday through Thursday… Ridging will build back over the region. We’ll have lots of sun, dry weather, and temps will rebound back towards seasonal averages.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph.
Temps… Monday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday highs will be in the high 50s to high 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.
The 8-14 day period… Ridging will be in control and give us lots of sun, dry weather, and seasonal temps. A frontal system could move through northern Colorado towards the end of the month. We’re on the wrong side of the mountains for that one. I think it will just be a wind-producer for us.
The next forecast post will be on Saturday.
– Shawn
