Snow-covered Pagosa Peak made a brief appearance this morning between the clouds – pic taken 10/17/2024
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Thursday – 17 Oct 2024 – 10:30am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature Wednesday was 60. The low this morning was 38.
The peak wind at Stevens Field on Wednesday was 36mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 64 | 78 / 1981 | 26 | 14 / 1913 |
Precipitation summary… Much of the county got decent precip from the first round of showers.
Forecast discussion…
The low over WA will be in the Vegas area by Friday morning and then spin over the Four Corners area until Sunday afternoon.
Forecast highlights…
*** Thursday through Sunday evening SIGNIFICANT SNOW is possible for the mountains. The valley will get a little snow too. ***
*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WATCH for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft – this includes Wolf Creek Pass. Up to 40” of snow and winds gusting to 40mph are possible. The heaviest snow will fall Friday morning to Sunday morning. ***
Thursday through Sunday… A trough will move through Thursday evening and then a low-pressure system is expected to spin over the Four Corners region Friday through Sunday afternoon. Waves of storm energy and moisture will move through our area and kick up showers and an occasional thunderstorm.
Precip will be heavy at times. All types of precip are possible: rain, snow, graupel, small hail, and maybe even a few pockets of freezing rain.
Timing…
Thursday occasional showers and a thunderstorm or two will continue into the evening.
There will be a lull Thursday night for the lower elevations, but showers will persist over the mountains.
Friday morning into Sunday afternoon the low will spin over AZ and send waves of showers and an occasional thunderstorm our way. Snow will fall heavily in the mountains at times.
Sunday afternoon into the evening, showers will taper off over the valley first and then over the mountains.
Snow levels…
Thursday into the evening: around 10,500ft rising to around 11,000ft
Thursday night: 10,500ft dropping to 10,000ft by sunrise Friday
Friday during the day: 9,500-10,000ft
Friday night: 8,500-9000ft
Saturday during the day: 8,500-9,000ft
Saturday night: 8,000-8,500ft
Sunday during the day: around 8,500ft
Sunday night: 7,500-8000ft
Forecast snow amounts:
Mountains above 11,500ft: 24-36”
Mountains 10,000-11,500ft: 16” to 24”
Valley above 8,500ft: 2” to 4”
Valley 8,000-8,500ft: up to 2”
Valley below 8,000ft: up to a half inch
Winds… Thursday evening through Friday afternoon occasional gusts in the 20-30mph range. Saturday and Sunday gusts will be 15-20mph.
Temps… Thursday and Friday highs will be in the high 40s to mid-50s. Lows Thursday night will be in the low to high 30s. Friday night lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s. Saturday highs will be in the high 40s to high 50s. Friday lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Saturday highs will be in the mid-40 to low 50s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. Sunday highs will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.
San Juan mountains above 11,500ft could get 3 FEET of snow.
Monday through Thursday… Ridging will build back over the region. We’ll have lots of sun, dry weather, and temps will rebound back towards seasonal averages.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph.
Temps… Monday highs will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday highs will be in the high 50s to high 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s.
The 8-14 day period… Ridging will be in control and give us lots of sun, dry weather, and seasonal temps. A frontal system could move through northern Colorado towards the end of the month. We’re on the wrong side of the mountains for that one. I think it will just be a wind-producer for us.
The next forecast post will be on Friday.
– Shawn
