An isolated afternoon storm or two…

Another glorious Pagosa Country evening - pic taken 8/29/2024

Another glorious Pagosa Country evening – pic taken 8/29/2024

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Friday – 30 Aug 2024 – 5:05pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Wednesday afternoon was 77 and the high on Thursday was 73. The low this morning was 46. The cold spots dipped into the mid to high 30s.

The minimum relative humidity Wednesday was 27% with a dew point of 40. Thursday it was 34% with a dew point of 39.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Wednesday afternoon was 28mph and on Thursday it was 16mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7991 / 19904225 / 1956

Precipitation summary… A couple of storms moved through parts of the county yesterday.  Most reports this morning ranged from zero to 0.02” but Robyn was the big rain lottery winner near Chromo with 0.21”.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop Friday roughly 3:30pm to 4:30pm – There is weak flow from the north over our area. Moisture and instability are also weak leading to a few small, isolated showers.
Water vapor satellite loop Friday roughly 3:30pm to 4:30pm – There is weak flow from the north over our area. Moisture and instability are also weak leading to a few small, isolated showers.
Radar at 4:54pm Friday – A few little popcorn showers are moving slowly towards the south. Town could get a few raindrops shortly after I send this post.  Consider yourself lucky if you get a little wet!
Radar at 4:54pm Friday – A few little popcorn showers are moving slowly towards the south. Town could get a few raindrops shortly after I send this post.  Consider yourself lucky if you get a little wet!

Forecast highlights…

*** A chance for an isolated storm or two each afternoon for the next 7-10 days. ***

*** Any storm can produce a brief period of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning over a small area. ***

Rest of Friday through next Sunday… The subtropical high and ridge will waver around the Four Corners region. Moisture and instability will be marginal leading to a slight chance for an isolated storm or two each afternoon.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph. Higher gusts are likely near storms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be near 40 to the low 50s.

NBM precip for this period shows 0.04” in the Pagosa area. Storms each day will be isolated. Any single storm can drop this much rain, otherwise, expect it to be mostly dry.
NBM precip for this period shows 0.04” in the Pagosa area. Storms each day will be isolated. Any single storm can drop this much rain, otherwise, expect it to be mostly dry.

The 8-14 day period… The subtropical ridge will weaken but remain in the area – typical for early September. Marginal moisture and instability result in a weak monsoon pattern for us with isolated afternoon and evening storms.

Temps will be near average to slightly above average.

The Euro ensemble precip to 14 Sep at 6am on the left expects 0.47” in the Pagosa area while GFS on the right expects 0.48”.
The Euro ensemble precip to 14 Sep at 6am on the left expects 0.47” in the Pagosa area while GFS on the right expects 0.48”.

The next forecast post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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