Isolated afternoon storms…

Pretty sunrise over the Eagle Peaks and Saddle Mountain - pic taken 8/28/2024

Pretty sunrise over the Eagle Peaks and Saddle Mountain – pic taken 8/28/2024

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Wednesday – 28 Aug 2024 – 12:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Monday afternoon was 75 and the high on Tuesday was 79. The low this morning was 48.

The minimum relative humidity Monday was 24% with a dew point of 36. Tuesday it was 17% with a dew point of 30.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Monday afternoon was 17mph and on Tuesday it was 9mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7988 / 19904224 / 1956

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Wednesday afternoon – A weak low will move through our area from the south this evening.  There is enough moisture and instability to kick up scattered storms later this afternoon and into the evening.
Water vapor satellite Wednesday afternoon – A weak low will move through our area from the south this evening.  There is enough moisture and instability to kick up scattered storms later this afternoon and into the evening.
Radar at 11:38am Wednesday – A few small, isolated storms have popped up to our southeast over northern NM. The showers south of I-40 are moving north, but they won’t impact us.
Radar at 11:38am Wednesday – A few small, isolated storms have popped up to our southeast over northern NM. The showers south of I-40 are moving north, but they won’t impact us.

Forecast highlights…

*** A chance for an isolated storm or two each afternoon for the next 7-10 days. ***

*** Any storm can produce brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***

Rest of Wednesday through next Friday… Today a weak low will move through our area from the south and kick up a few scattered storms later this afternoon and into the evening.

For the rest of the period, the subtropical high and ridge will waver around the Four Corners region. Moisture and instability will be marginal leading to a slight chance for an isolated storm or two each afternoon.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph. Higher gusts are likely near storms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

NBM precip for this period shows 0.07” in the Pagosa area. Storms each day will be isolated. Any single storm can drop this much rain, otherwise, expect it to be mostly dry.
NBM precip for this period shows 0.07” in the Pagosa area. Storms each day will be isolated. Any single storm can drop this much rain, otherwise, expect it to be mostly dry.

The 8-14 day period… The subtropical ridge will weaken but remain in the area – typical for early September. Marginal moisture and instability result in a weak monsoon pattern for us with isolated afternoon and evening storms.

Temps will be near average to slightly above average.

The Euro ensemble precip to 11 Sep at 6pm on the left expects 0.57” in the Pagosa area while GFS on the right expects 0.91”.
The Euro ensemble precip to 11 Sep at 6pm on the left expects 0.57” in the Pagosa area while GFS on the right expects 0.91”.

The next forecast post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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