An Isolated storm two each afternoon all week…

A peek of golden morning sun between storm clouds and fog – pic taken 8/23/2024

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Monday – 26 Aug 2024 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Saturday afternoon was 71 and the high on Sunday was 74. The low this morning was 53.

The minimum relative humidity Saturday was 38% with a dew point of 44. Sunday it was 26% with a dew point of 36.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Saturday afternoon was 17mph and on Sunday it was 32mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
79	88 / 1985	43	26 / 1956

Precipitation summary… Precip reports have varied considerably the last few days.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from this morning ranged from 0.04” to 0.35”. The rain lottery winners were Patty and Robyn near Chromo.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Sunday morning ranged from 0.04” to 0.39”. The rain lottery winner was Mike in the upper Mill Creek area.*

Forecast discussion…

*Water vapor satellite Monday afternoon – The monsoon moisture plume – outlined in green – is getting cut-off and pushed to our east. Drier and more stable air is moving in from the west.*

Radar at 4:12pm Monday – It’s quiet over Archuleta County. That little cell to our south is moving towards Dulce as I type. Most of the storm activity is along the I-25 corridor in southern CO and NM.

Forecast highlights…

*** This week will be less active with an isolated storm or two each afternoon. ***

*** Any storm can produce brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***

Monday through Sunday… The monsoon moisture plume will get cut-off but residual moisture and instability will be enough to kick up a few isolated storms late each afternoon.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph. Higher gusts are likely near storms.

Temps… Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be 40 to 50. Highs Wednesday through Sunday will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

*WPC precip for this period shows 0.13” in the Pagosa area. Storms each day will be isolated. Any single storm can drop this much rain, otherwise, expect this week to be mostly dry.*

The 8-14 day period… The subtropical ridge will weaken but remain in the area – typical for early September. Marginal moisture and instability result in a weak monsoon pattern for us with isolated afternoon and evening storms.

Temps will be near average to slightly above average.

The Euro ensemble precip to 10 Sep at 6am on the left expects 0.61” in the Pagosa area while GFS on the right expects 1.77”. This is a pretty big difference. At this point I’m leaning towards the lower amounts of the Euro forecast model. — *The Euro ensemble precip to 10 Sep at 6am on the left expects 0.61” in the Pagosa area while GFS on the right expects 1.77”.*
*This is a pretty big difference. At this point I’m leaning towards the lower amounts of the Euro forecast model.*

The next forecast post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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