Two more soggy days…

A foggy morning at a high-country lake – pic taken 8/21/2024

If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Saturday – 24 Aug 2024 – 10:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Thursday afternoon was 77 and the high on Friday was 78. The low this morning was 51.

The minimum relative humidity Thursday was 30% with a dew point of 43. Friday it was 28% with a dew point of 42.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Thursday afternoon was 23mph and on Friday it was 35mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
79	88 / 1985	43	29 / 1956

Precipitation summary… Much of the county – sorry Chromo – got a good soaking last night.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from this morning ranged from 0.07” to 0.74”. The rain lottery winners were Arleen and Gerry north of Turkey Springs.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from Friday morning ranged from 0.02” to 0.23”. The rain lottery winner was Mike in the upper Mill Creek area.*

Forecast discussion…

*Water vapor satellite Saturday morning – The high is over OK and a low is over the Pacific NW. A good monsoon moisture plume is being funneled over our heads.*

*Radar at 10:04am Saturday – a few scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving towards the northeast across parts of Archuleta County.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Scattered soaking rainshowers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday especially late each afternoon and into the evenings. ***

*** Monday through Friday will be less active with a few isolated storms each afternoon. ***

*** Any storm can produce brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***

Rest of Saturday through Sunday night… The heart of the monsoon moisture plume will be over our heads. We’ll see lots of clouds, high temps below average, and occasional rainshowers and thunderstorms, especially in the late afternoons and into each night.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph. Higher gusts are likely near storms.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to high 70s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

*NBM precip to 6am Monday expects 0.66” in the Pagosa area. This looks good to me.*

Monday through Friday… The monsoon moisture plume will get cut-off but residual moisture and instability will be enough to kick up a few isolated storms late each afternoon.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph. Higher gusts are likely near storms.

Temps… Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s. Highs Wednesday through Friday will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

*WPC precip for this period shows less than 0.10” in the Pagosa area. Any single storm will produce this much over a small area so I expect to see higher amounts.*

The 8-14 day period… The subtropical ridge will weaken but remain in the area – typical for early September. Marginal moisture and instability result in a weak monsoon pattern for us with isolated afternoon and evening storms.

Temps will be near average to slightly above average.

The Euro ensemble precip to 7 Sep at 6pm on the left expects 2.23” in the Pagosa area while GFS on the right expects 2.96”. I think both of these totals are too high but amounts will vary considerably.

The next forecast post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

2 Responses

Veronica Taylor says:

August 24, 2024 at 11:10 am

This rain is heaven.

Reply
1. Arleen Pro says:
  
  August 24, 2024 at 7:46 pm
  
  Yes! It is so wonderful!
  
  Reply

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Support Pagosa Weather

Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use Privacy Policy

Website Design by : Brandon