Potential soaking Thursday, Friday, and Saturday…

Tommy enjoyed a fantastic view and great weather high in the mountains on Thursday – pic taken 8/15/2024

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Sunday – 18 Aug 2024 – 6:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Friday afternoon was 84 and the high on Saturday was 86. The low this morning was 53.

The minimum relative humidity Friday was 15% with a dew point of 32. Saturday it was 17% with a dew point of 36.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Friday afternoon was 30mph and on Saturday it was 29mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
80	97 / 1946	45	30 / 1960

Precipitation summary… Yesterday was more active than I expected. A couple of lucky folks got a good soaking!

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from this morning ranged from zero to 0.67”. The big rain lottery winners were Sarah and Dara in the Echo Canyon area.*

Forecast discussion…

*Water vapor satellite Sunday afternoon – The high is over the TX panhandle. We’re on the eastern edge of a weak monsoon moisture plume (circled in green with green arrows showing the flow).*

*Radar at 6:10pm Sunday – It’s quiet over Archuleta County and much of the area. A couple of small, weak storms are moving towards the north and north-northeast.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Isolated afternoon storms are possible through Wednesday. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will be more active with a good soaking possible. ***

*** Any storm can produce brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning, especially Thursday through Saturday. ***

Rest of Sunday through Saturday… The high is currently near the TX panhandle and will continue to wobble around the region. Monsoon moisture and instability will be weak through Wednesday and then will ramp up Thursday through Saturday.

Through Wednesday a few isolated afternoon and evening storms are likely.

Thursday through Saturday we’ll see an increase in storm activity. Storms will be possible any time of day but are most likely in the afternoons and evenings.

Temps will be 5-10 degrees above average through Wednesday and then close to average the rest of this period.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph through Wednesday and then around 20mph the rest of the period. Higher gusts are likely near storms, especially Thursday through Saturday.

Temps… Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

*NBM precip through late Wednesday evening shows 0.05” for Pagosa.*

*NBM precip through late Saturday evening shows 0.49” for Pagosa.*

Precip is all convective showers so amounts will vary considerably.

The 8-14 day period… The high will wobble around the Four Corners area. Initially monsoon moisture and instability will be marginal leading to hit and miss storms each afternoon. The last few days of this period monsoon moisture and instability will increase resulting in an increase of storm activity.

Temps will be near average.

The Euro ensemble precip to 2 Sep at 6am on the left expects 1.69” in the Pagosa area while GFS on the right expects 1.44”. Most of this is expected Thursday, Friday, and Saturday and then the last 5 days or so of this period. It’s all convective afternoon showery precip so amounts will vary considerably.

The next forecast post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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