Now we dry out…

Storm rolling across the ridge above Vallecito. It drenched us as we drove down the mountain. – pic taken 8/13/2024

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Wednesday – 14 Aug 2024 – 10:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Monday afternoon was 80 and the high on Tuesday was 77. The low this morning was 49.

The minimum relative humidity Monday was 27% with a dew point of 43. Tuesday it was 29% with a dew point of 41.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Monday afternoon was 17mph and on Tuesday it was 37mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
80	89 / 1940	44	32 / 1950

Precipitation summary… Much of the county got another decent soaking.

Thanks a bunch for your precip reports and pictures!

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported Tuesday morning ranged from zero to 0.63”. The rain lottery winner was Patty near Chromo.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported Wednesday morning ranged from 0.05” to 0.28”. The rain lottery winner was Robyn near Chromo.*

*CoCoRaHS precip totals so far for August range from 1.43” to 3.23”. The average for August is 2.69”.*

River levels… San Juan River flow is still higher than the median of 129cfs but that will change over the next few days as we dry out and warm up.

*San Juan River flow was 200cfs early Wednesday morning but will drop over the next week.*

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Wednesday morning – The low off the Pacific NW coast and the two weak troughs, yellow dashed lines, have knocked down the subtropical ridge over the southwest US. Upper level west and northwest flow, blue arrows, around the high is pushing drier air into the region.

There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Break out the shorts, t-shirts, and sunscreen – it’s going to be mostly dry and warm for a while. ***

Wednesday through Tuesday… The monsoon moisture plume has been cut off. Precipitable water and instability bottom out Thursday and Friday and then will be marginal for 7-10 days.

This means that Thursday and Friday will be dry. The rest of the period there is a slight chance for an isolated afternoon storm. I expect very little precip for the next 7-10 days.

Temps will be near average today and then 5-10 degrees above average for the rest of this period.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s. Thursday through Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the low 40s to low 50s.

*NBM precip for this period shows no precip for Pagosa and less than 0.10” along the mountains. I expect very little precip during this period.*

The 8-14 day period… The high will wobble around the Four Corners area. Monsoon moisture and instability will be marginal leading to few a hit and miss storms each afternoon. Precip amounts will be low and spotty. Temps will be slightly above average.

The Euro ensemble precip to 28 Aug at 6pm on the left expects 0.61” in the Pagosa area while GFS on the right expects 0.65”. This is all convective afternoon showery precip so amounts will vary considerably.

The next forecast post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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