Scattered storms through Tuesday and then dry through the weekend…

A spectacular sunrise painted by Mother Nature! - pic taken 8/11/2024

A spectacular sunrise painted by Mother Nature! – pic taken 8/11/2024

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Monday – 12 Aug 2024 – 4:20pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Sunday afternoon was 77 and the high so far on Monday is 79. The low this morning was 56.

The minimum relative humidity Sunday was 35% with a dew point of 47. Monday it was 30% with a dew point of 45.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Sunday afternoon was 16mph and on Monday it was 17mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8089 / 19724533 / 1950

Precipitation summary… Another storm moved through overnight.  This time it dropped most of its precip over our neighboring county.

Thanks a bunch for your precip reports and pictures!

11 Aug 2024 am CoCoRaHS 24hr precip
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported Sunday morning ranged from 0.25” to 0.69”. The rain lottery winner was Leo on Catch Pole.
12 Aug 2024 pm CoCoRaHS 24hr precip
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports Monday morning across Archuleta County ranged from zero to 0.20”. The rain lottery winner was Mike in Aspen Springs. The storm dropped most its rain over La Plata county early this morning. We just got “scraps”.

River levels… San Juan River flow spiked over 500cfs Sunday morning.

San Juan River flow peaked at 671cfs at 9:30am Saturday and surged again to 512cfs Sunday morning.
San Juan River flow peaked at 671cfs at 9:30am Saturday and surged again to 512cfs Sunday morning.

Forecast discussion…

Satellite and lightning at 3:40pm Monday afternoon – Just like the last 2 days, we are in a little stable bubble with storms developing around us.
Satellite and lightning at 3:40pm Monday afternoon – Just like the last 2 days, we are in a little stable bubble with storms developing around us.
Radar at 3:54pm Monday afternoon – Cells are developing on the other side of The Divide and moving towards the northeast.
Radar at 3:54pm Monday afternoon – Cells are developing on the other side of The Divide and moving towards the northeast.

Forecast highlights…

*** Scattered storms through Tuesday night can occur any time of day. ***

*** All storms are capable of short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***

*** Streams are higher, and minor flooding is possible in low-lying areas. ***

*** We will dry out the second half of next week. ***

Rest of Monday through Tuesday… The monsoon moisture plume has weakened a little but will stay with us through Tuesday. Scattered storms can happen any time of day, but they will be more hit and miss and won’t drop as much rain.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Monday and Tuesday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

NBM precip to 6am Wednesday evening expects 0.13” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts will vary.
NBM precip to 6am Wednesday expects 0.13” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts will vary.

Wednesday through next weekend… Precipitable water will decrease, and the atmosphere will be more stable. 

Wednesday is the best chance for an isolated storm, but most of us will stay dry.  Thursday will be dry.  Friday through Sunday there’s just a slight chance for an isolated afternoon storm or two. I expect very little precip during this period.

Temps will be near average.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Afternoon highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

Euro precip for this period expects 0.03”. That’s not much for a 5-day period during our wettest month. Some folks won’t get anything while a few lucky areas will get double this amount.
Euro precip for this period expects 0.03”. That’s not much for a 5-day period during our wettest month. Some folks won’t get anything while a few lucky areas will get double this amount.

The next forecast post will be Monday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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