Impressive rain totals!…

Morning fly-over under dark clouds – pic taken 8/9/2024

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Saturday – 10 Aug 2024 – 4:20pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Thursday afternoon was 84 and the high on Friday was 73. The low this morning was 56.

The minimum relative humidity Thursday was 20% with a dew point of 38. Friday it was 40% with a dew point of 46. Saturday afternoon it’s 47% and 50.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Thursday afternoon was 23mph and on Friday it was 7mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
81	92 / 1934	45	28 / 1956

Precipitation summary… Most of the county has received a good soaking. 24-hour precip amounts reported Friday morning, Saturday morning, and 2-day totals are below.

Thanks a bunch for your precip reports and pictures!

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported Friday morning ranged from 0.13” to 0.91”. The rain lottery winner was Arleen just north of Turkey Springs.*

10 Aug 2024 pm CoCoRaHS 24hr precip — *CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reported Saturday morning ranged from 0.23” to 1.20”. The rain lottery winner was Robert near Hatcher Lake. Most of the reports are over ¾” of inch.*

*CoCoRaHS 2-day storm totals range from 0.87” to 2.02” – impressive! In just two days we got a good chunk of our August average precip of 2.69”.*

River levels… San Juan River flow spiked over 600cfs this morning.

*San Juan River flow peaked at 671cfs at 9:30am Saturday.*

Forecast discussion…

Satellite and lightning roughly 3-4pm Saturday afternoon – There are a couple of weak showers in the area moving west to east. The atmosphere is a little more stable which is limiting shower activity in our area.

Radar at 4:02pm Saturday afternoon – Shower activity has been minimal over Archuleta County. I expect a storms to develop this evening but they’ll be hit and miss. Storms will move west to east or towards the east-southeast. — Radar at 4:02pm Saturday afternoon – Shower activity has been minimal over Archuleta County. I expect a few storms to develop this evening but they’ll be hit and miss. Storms will move west to east or towards the east-southeast.

Forecast highlights…

*** Scattered storms through Tuesday evening can occur any time of day, but the best chance for storms is late each afternoon into each evening. ***

*** All storms are capable of short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***

*** Streams are rising, and minor flooding is possible in low-lying areas. ***

*** We will dry out the second half of next week. ***

Rest of Saturday through Tuesday… The monsoon moisture plume has weakened a little but will stay with us through Tuesday. Scattered storms can happen any time of day, but they will be more hit and miss and won’t drop as much rain.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Saturday highs will be in the low to high 70s will be near 50 to the mid-50s. Sunday through Tuesday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

*NBM precip to late Tuesday evening expects 0.54” in the Pagosa area. Precip amounts will vary considerably.*

Wednesday through next weekend… Precipitable water will decrease, and the atmosphere will be more stable. Afternoon storms will be more isolated and will drop less rain. Temps will be near average.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Afternoon highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

*Euro precip for this period expects 0.16”. That’s not much for a 5-day period during our wettest month. Some folks will hardly get anything while a few lucky folks will get double this amount.*

The next forecast post will be Monday afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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