Impressive cumulonimbus cloud Tuesday afternoon – pic taken 8/6/2024
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Thursday – 8 Aug 2024 – 10:20am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature Tuesday afternoon was 89 and the high on Wednesday was 83. The low this morning was 55.
The minimum relative humidity Tuesday was 22% with a dew point of 42. Wednesday it was 24% with a dew point of 43. At 9am Thursday morning it’s 47% and 47.
The peak wind at Stevens Field Tuesday afternoon was 32mph and on Wednesday it was 32mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 82 | 90 / 1969 | 45 | 29 / 1956 |
Precipitation summary… The trend continues – Some folks barely get anything while some get a good soaking.
River levels… San Juan River flow nearly tripled last night around midnight from 58cfs to 165cfs. We’re going to see more of this over the next few days.
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar in our area this morning. That will change this afternoon.
Forecast highlights…
*** Thursday afternoon through Sunday evening storms possible any time of day, but the best chance for storms is late each afternoon into each evening. ***
*** All storms are capable of short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***
*** Streams will rise, and minor flooding is possible in low-lying areas. ***
Rest of Thursday through Wednesday… The heart of the monsoon moisture plume will be over our heads late Thursday afternoon into Sunday evening. Precipitable water, the amount of water available for precip, will be 150% to 175% of average. That means we should get a good soaking.
Precipitable water will gradually decrease Monday through Wednesday so there will be fewer storms, but lucky folks will get a good soaking each day.
Thursday afternoon into Sunday evening storms are possible any time of day, but the best chance for storms is each afternoon into each evening. Monday through Wednesday, scattered storms will occur each afternoon into each evening.
Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.
Temps… Thursday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be near 50 to mid-50s. Friday through Sunday highs will be in the low 70s to low 80s and lows will be near 50 to the mid-50s. Monday through Wednesday highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.
8-14 day precip… Monsoon moisture will decrease a bit as a low pressure trough moves through the Pacific NW and temporarily knocks down our subtropical ridge. We’ll continue to see afternoon storms, but they will be more hit and miss.
The next forecast post will be Saturday afternoon.
– Shawn
