Dry and warm through Thursday – scattered afternoon storms starting Friday…

The hills are alive with lush vegetation and tons of pretty flowers! – pic taken Arleen on 7/30/2024

The hills are alive with lush vegetation and tons of pretty flowers! – pic taken by Arleen on 7/30/2024

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Wednesday – 31 July 2024 – 9:10am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Monday afternoon was 82 and the high on Tuesday was 87. The low this morning was 49.

The minimum relative humidity Monday was 16% with a dew point of 29. Tuesday it was 13% with a dew point of 29.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Monday afternoon was 20mph and on Tuesday it was 24mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8294 / 19904734 / 1913

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite Wednesday morning – The main high pressure is over the Louisiana area.  There is a secondary high pressure off the CA coast. Monsoon moisture is outlined in green with the upper-level flow indicated by green arrows. It’s still dry over southwest CO, but moisture will slowly increase from the south over the next few days.
Water vapor satellite Wednesday morning – The main high pressure is over the Louisiana area.  There is a secondary high pressure off the CA coast. Monsoon moisture is outlined in green with the upper-level flow indicated by green arrows. It’s still dry over southwest CO, but moisture will slowly increase from the south over the next few days.

There is nothing on radar in our region.

Forecast highlights…

*** Record high temp watch on Thursday. The previous record high was 90 set in 1993. ***

*** Starting Friday afternoon, the chance for afternoon storms will ramp up each day. ***

*** All storms are capable of short periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. ***

Wednesday and Thursday… High pressure, dry air, and a stable atmosphere will keep us dry and warm. We’ll see a few more clouds Thursday afternoon as more moisture slowly filters in from the south. A stray storm could develop over the mountains Thursday afternoon.

Winds… Wednesday afternoon peaks will be around 20mph. Thursday afternoon peaks will be around 15mph.

Temps… Highs will in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

Friday through Wednesday… Monsoon moisture and instability will increase leading to better chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. More clouds in the afternoons will help keep high temps a little cooler.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are likely near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Friday highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Saturday through Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

NBM precip to late next Wednesday evening expects 0.81” in the Pagosa area. I think this is a little high for most of us, but amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip to late next Wednesday evening expects 0.81” in the Pagosa area. I think this is a little high for most of us, but amounts will vary considerably.

8-14 day precip… The high will wobble around the Four Corners region so monsoon moisture and instability will stick with us. We’ll continue to see afternoon storms, but they will be hit and miss.

Euro ensemble precip on the left to 6pm 14 Aug expects 1.55” while GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 2.12”.  This is all convective showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.
Euro ensemble precip on the left to 6pm 14 Aug expects 1.55” while GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 2.12”.  This is all convective showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.

The next forecast post will be Thursday evening.  I hope to get the July Summary/August Outlook post done by Friday evening.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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