Dry and warm for a while…

A spider web covered in morning dew – pic taken 6/28/2024

If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Wednesday – 3 July 2024 – 9:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Monday afternoon was 70 and the high on Tuesday was 79. The low this morning was 49.

The minimum relative humidity yesterday was 24% with a dew point of 39. We’re drying out.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 24mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
83	94 / 1989	41	27 / 1951

Precipitation summary… Most of the county got another decent soaking Monday night. Reports in the last 24 hours, Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning, ranged from zero to 0.02”.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from yesterday, 2 Jul, ranged from 0.15” to 0.45”. Mike was the rain lottery near Trujillo. — *CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports from yesterday morning, 2 Jul, ranged from 0.15” to 0.45”. Mike was the rain lottery near Trujillo.*

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The subtropical moisture plume has been pushed to our east by upper-level westerly and soon-to-be northwesterly flow (yellow arrows). Unfortunately for us, the high off the CA coast will be our main influence over the next 7-10 days as it pushes dry air over the Four Corners region.

There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** The weather looks great for 4^th of July festivities. We hope to see you at the parade! ***

*** Dry and warm for the next week and then a little more active weather pattern. ***

Wednesday through Sunday… There is a slight chance of a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm today.

The upper-level high currently well off the CA coast will gradually shift east. Flow over us will be mostly out of the northwest and dry. Temps will be slightly above seasonal averages for us. I don’t expect any precip Thursday through Sunday.

Winds… Gusts each afternoon will be around 20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday… The high will gradually shift east and weaken. By Wednesday afternoon it is expected to be over UT.

This is not ideal for us but will allow a little more moisture and instability to creep into our area. The chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm will slowly increase each day. Wednesday afternoon is the best chance for a little precip, but I expect most of us to remain dry.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are possible near a shower or thunderstorm.

Temps… Highs will be in low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

*Euro 3-day total precip during this period expects 0.09” in the Pagosa area. The GFS has 0.16” and the NBM has 0.01”. My expectations are low for precip.*

The 8-14 day period… The models are all over the place regarding the high to our west. Some models continue to move the high slowly east – a good thing for us – while other models keep the high to our west – a bad thing for us. Monsoon moisture is in place but a high to our west would result in lower chances for precip. At this point, my expectations for precip are low. I just expect a few isolated showers and thunderstorms each day. I think we’ll be playing the rain lottery for a while.

*The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook “leans toward” above average precip in our area. I don’t agree. Based on what I see now, I expect below average precip for us during this period.*

Here are the 3 primary ensemble forecast models for precip to the evening of 17 July… Euro: 0.41”, GFS: 0.98”, Canadian: 1.12”. Right now I’m leaning towards the Euro. — *Here are the 3 primary ensemble forecast models for precip to the evening of 17 July…*
*Euro: 0.41”, GFS: 0.98”, Canadian: 1.12”. Right now I’m leaning towards the Euro.*

My next forecast post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Support Pagosa Weather

Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use Privacy Policy

Website Design by : Brandon