Pagosa Weather JUNE SUMMARY & July Outlook

Conditions over Archuleta County are considered "abnormally dry".

Conditions over Archuleta County are considered “abnormally dry”.

Monday – 2 July 2024 – 6:15pm

June summary…

The average high for June is 78 and the average low is 36. The record high of 101 occurred on 30 June 1934. The record low of 20 occurred on 2 June 1908. Precip averages 0.93″ in June with zero snow. June is our driest month. Wolf Creek Pass averages 1.74″ of precip and 1.2″ of snow.

At Stevens Field the highest temp in June was 89 on the 13th and the lowest temp was 40 on the 2nd and 3rd.

How did we do?

June mean temperature anomalies across Archuleta County were 3-5 degrees above average.
June mean temperature anomalies across Archuleta County were 3-5 degrees above average.

June mean precip anomalies were 300-400% of average for most of Archuleta County.
June mean precip anomalies were 300-400% of average for most of Archuleta County.

CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 1.61″ to 3.85″. 22 out of 22 locations had more than the average of 0.93″.
CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 1.61″ to 3.85″. 22 out of 22 locations had more than the average of 0.93″. 10 locations had over 3″ over precip!

We got 10.12″ of precip so far in 2024 – MORE than the average of 9.44″
We got 10.12″ of precip so far in 2024 – MORE than the average of 9.44″

Drought, River Flow, and Lake Levels…

Drought conditions improved during June for Archuleta County.  CA, NV, and UT are drought free - amazing!
Drought conditions improved during June for Archuleta County. CA and NV are drought free – amazing!

For June, San Juan River flow had a minimum flow of 274cfs on 19 June and a maximum flow of 1,470cfs on 22 May. Moisture from remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto significantly boosted flow.
For June, the San Juan River in Pagosa Springs had a minimum flow of 274cfs on 19 June and a maximum flow of 1,470cfs on 22 June. Moisture from remnants of Tropical Storm Alberto significantly boosted flow.

Lake levels in the Upper Colorado River Basin currently average 86.79%. Navajo Reservoir is at 70.95% – a gain of over 7% and nearly 13 feet from its low on 12 Apr.
Lake levels in the Upper Colorado River Basin currently average 86.79%. Navajo Reservoir is at 70.95% – a gain of over 7% and nearly 13 feet from its low on 12 Apr.

July outlook…

The average high for July is 83 and the average low is 44. The record high of 99 occurred on 7 July 1989. The record low of 24 occurred on 5 July 1912. Precip averages 2.01″ in July with zero snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 3.61″ of precip and zero snow.

The CPC temp outlook for July on the left shows a 70-80% chance for above average temps.
The precip outlook on the right expects “equal chances” for average precip.
The CPC temp outlook for July on the left shows a 70-80% chance for above average temps.
The precip outlook on the right expects “equal chances” for average precip.

Euro ensemble precip on the left expects 3.39″ of precip for July and the GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 5.54″ – Both models expect more than the average of 2.01″.
Euro ensemble precip on the left expects 3.39″ of precip for July and the GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 5.54″ – Both models expect more than the average of 2.01″.

And what do we expect?

Arleen is the expert, and this is what she says…

My precipitation forecast for the month of June was off but in the best possible way. I expected us to get average precipitation. Some folks had nearly four times the average precipitation!

For the July outlook, the monsoon pattern is set up with a large ridge over the southern plains. Low level moisture has been advecting around the ridge resulting in a wetter than average pattern. However, the polar front jet is still active across the central states. A deep trough will transition across the country, shearing the ridge and allowing another ridge to build on the west coast – not good for us.

It will take a good ten days for the subtropical ridge to build over the southern states, again. This will lead to a warm and dry first part of the month. As the ridge rebuilds to our east for the last half of the month, our normal monsoon pattern will return.

For July I expect us to get above average precipitation. Bear in mind that the Gulf area should have a very active tropical storm season this year. If we get remnants of another tropical storm, we could see larger precipitation numbers again. With the warm start of the month, I expect to finish July with slightly above average temperatures.

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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