Dry and warm this weekend and then a more active pattern next week…

Flowers are poppin’ in the high country!  This is our state flower – pic taken 7/3/2024

Flowers are poppin’ in the high country!  This is our state flower – pic taken 7/3/2024

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Friday – 5 July 2024 – 6:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Thursday afternoon was 83 and the high on Friday was 83. The low this morning was 44. The cold spots dipped into the high 30s.

The minimum relative humidity yesterday was 11% with a dew point of 24. Today it was 12% with a dew point of 23 – quite dry.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 22mph. Today’s peak wind was 20mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8395 / 19894224 / 1912

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high off the northern CA coast is the main influence on our weather.  Upper-level northwest flow is keeping us dry and has pushed the monsoon moisture – outlined in green - to our south and east. Hurricane Beryl is in the bottom right. We will not get any of its moisture.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The high off the northern CA coast is the main influence on our weather.  Upper-level northwest flow is keeping us dry and has pushed the monsoon moisture – outlined in green – to our south and east. Hurricane Beryl is in the bottom right. We will not get any of its moisture.

There is nothing on radar in our area this evening.

Forecast highlights…

*** Dry and warm through the weekend. ***

*** The chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will slowly ramp up through the week. ***

Saturday and Sunday… The upper-level high, currently well off the northern CA coast, will gradually shift southeast.  Flow over us will be out of the northwest and dry. Temps will be slightly above seasonal averages for us. I don’t expect any precip.

Winds… Gusts each afternoon will be around 20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday… The high will gradually shift east and weaken. By Wednesday afternoon it is expected to be over western UT and eastern NV.

This is not ideal for us but will allow a little more moisture and instability to creep into our area. The chance for a spotty afternoon shower or thunderstorm will slowly increase each day. Wednesday afternoon is the best chance for a little precip, but I expect most of us to remain dry.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are possible near a shower or thunderstorm.

Temps… Highs will be in low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

WPC precip to late Wednesday evening expects 0.03” in the Pagosa area. I think most of us will stay dry.
WPC precip to late Wednesday evening expects 0.03” in the Pagosa area. I think most of us will stay dry.

Thursday and Friday… The high will shift farther east towards the Four Corners.  A little more moisture and a little more instability will move into our area. Our chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase a little more.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be around 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are possible near a shower or thunderstorm.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s.

WPC precip for Thursday and Friday shows 0.25” in the Pagosa area. I think this is possible for a few lucky spots, but most folks will get less.
WPC precip for Thursday and Friday shows 0.25” in the Pagosa area. I think this is possible for a few lucky spots, but most folks will get less.

My next forecast post will be Sunday afternoon. 

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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