One more wet day and then we’ll dry out for a while…

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip totals are impressive!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip totals are impressive!

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Monday – 1 July 2024 – 12:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Sunday afternoon was 79. The low this morning was 57.

The minimum relative humidity yesterday was 36% with a dew point of 49.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 28mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8292 / 19904129 / 1968

Precipitation summary… That was a doozy yesterday!  Thanks so much for your reports, pictures, and videos on our Facebook page.  Your reports were very helpful to us and the Grand Junction NWS.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports ranged from 0.33” to 2.25”. Chuck was the rain lottery winner in town. Andy, our longest consistently active CoCoRaHS observer since May 2014, said this is the first time that he’s measured over 2” in 24 hours!
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports ranged from 0.33” to 2.25”. Chuck was the rain lottery winner in town.

Andy, our longest consistently active CoCoRaHS observer since May 2014, said it’s the first time that he’s measured over 2” in 24 hours!

Forecast discussion…

Satellite at noon on Monday – The band of subtropical moisture is slowly getting pinched. It’s over our heads and will stick with us through tonight.  Then upper-level westerly flow followed by northwesterly flow will dry us out.
Satellite at noon on Monday – The band of subtropical moisture is slowly getting pinched. It’s over our heads and will stick with us through tonight.  Then upper-level westerly flow followed by northwesterly flow will dry us out.
Radar at 12:12pm on Monday – Scattered light showers are moving towards the northeast over parts of Archuleta County. The “Four Corners radar donut hole” is preventing us from seeing all of the precip.
Radar at 12:12pm on Monday – Scattered light showers are moving towards the northeast over parts of Archuleta County. The “Four Corners radar donut hole” is preventing us from seeing all of the precip.

Forecast highlights…

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a FLOOD WATCH for all of southwestern Colorado valid through Monday afternoon. ***

*** A drier weather pattern will start to set up Tuesday and could last a week or longer. ***

Rest Monday… Deep tropical moisture is over our heads and will stay with us into Monday night. Precip will come in waves, occasionally heavy for brief periods.  Lightning, small hail, and gusty winds are also possible.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to high 70s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

NBM forecast radar from noon Monday to 10am Tuesday – Initially most of the action is over the eastern half of Archuleta County until 4-5pm. It clears through most of the evening, but a few spotty showers persist. Another band of showers moves through 1am-7am and then precip is mostly over.
NBM forecast radar from noon Monday to 10am Tuesday – Initially most of the action is over the eastern half of Archuleta County until 4-5pm. It clears through most of the evening, but a few spotty showers persist. Another band of showers moves through 1am-7am and then precip is mostly over.
NBM precip to 8am Tuesday shows 0.28” in the Pagosa area. This is all convective, showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip to 8am Tuesday shows 0.28” in the Pagosa area.
This is all convective, showery precip, so amounts will vary considerably.

Tuesday and Wednesday… We’ll wake up to bright blue sunny skies each morning, and then clouds will build over the mountains starting around noon.  A spotty afternoon/early evening shower or thunderstorm is possible, mostly over the mountains. Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops!

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

Thursday through Sunday… Unfortunately the upper-level high will set up to our west.  Flow over us will be mostly out of the northwest and dry. Temps will be near to slightly above seasonal averages.

I don’t expect any precip.

Winds… Gusts each afternoon will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

WPC 5-day precip from noon Wednesday to noon next Monday shows no precip over western Colorado. I think that there is a slight chance for a spotty shower or thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon, but I expect most of us to stay dry.
WPC 5-day precip from noon Wednesday to noon next Monday shows no precip over western Colorado.
I think there is a slight chance for a spotty shower or thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon, but I expect most of us to stay dry.

My next forecast post will be on Wednesday.  I also plan to get the June summary/July outlook in a day or two.

The weather looks great for 4th of July festivities.  We hope to see you at the parade!

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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