FLOOD WATCH out through Monday afternoon…

This storm hammered us at Mesa Verde National Park – pic taken 6/27/2024

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Sunday – 30 June 2024 – 4:20pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Saturday afternoon was 83 and so far on Sunday it was 79. The low this morning was 58.

The minimum relative humidity today was 36% with a dew point of 49. Yesterday it was 22% with a dew point of 40.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 22mph, Today’s highest wind so far is 7mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
82	101 / 1934	41	28 / 1942

Precipitation summary… Most of the county got some precip Saturday evening and then again later Saturday night.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports ranged from 0.01” to 0.14”. Jerry was the rain lottery winner near Village Lake.*

Forecast discussion…

Visual satellite and lightning loop roughly 3-4pm Sunday – The high is over the TX panhandle region. Clockwise flow around the high is pushing monsoon moisture into the Four Corners area. Showers and thunderstorms have been slow to develop but things are getting more active as I type. A thunderstorm moved through the Chromo area during the last hour. — Visual satellite and lightning loop roughly 3-4pm Sunday – The high is over the TX panhandle region. Clockwise flow around the high is pushing monsoon moisture into the Four Corners area. Showers and thunderstorms have been slow to develop but things are getting more active as I type.
*A thunderstorm moved through the Chromo area during the last hour.*

*Radar this afternoon at 3:54pm – Showers and thunderstorms are scattered and localized to small areas. In our area they’re moving towards the northeast.*

Forecast highlights…

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a FLOOD WATCH for all of southwestern Colorado valid through Monday afternoon. ***

*** A drier weather pattern will start to set up Tuesday and could last a week or longer. ***

Rest of Sunday and Monday… Another surge of tropical moisture is over our heads and will stay with us into Monday evening. The best chance for precip is late Sunday evening into early Monday evening. Precip will come in waves, occasionally heavy for brief periods. Lightning, small hail, and gusty winds are also possible.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

WPC precip to late Monday evening shows 0.96” in the Pagosa area. This is all convective, showery precip so amounts will vary considerably. Amounts from other forecast models for after-the-fact verification: NBM: 0.95”, Euro: 1.97”, Euro ensemble: 1.98”, GFS: 0.54”, GFS ensemble: 0.77”, Canadian ensemble: 0.53”. — *WPC precip to late Monday evening shows 0.96” in the Pagosa area. This is all convective, showery precip so amounts will vary considerably.*
*Amounts from other forecast models for after-the-fact verification: NBM: 0.95”, Euro: 1.97”, Euro ensemble: 1.98”, GFS: 0.54”, GFS ensemble: 0.77”, Canadian ensemble: 0.53”.*

Tuesday and Wednesday… Moisture and instability will decrease giving us just a slight chance for a spotty shower or a thunderstorm each afternoon into each evening.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

Thursday through Sunday… Unfortunately the upper-level high will set up to our west. Flow over us will be mostly out of the northwest and dry. Temps will be near seasonal averages, and I don’t expect any precip.

Winds… Gusts each afternoon will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Euro ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram – This is read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and the mean of those 50 versions. Explanation: 1. This model and most other forecast models expect significant precip over the next 24 to 30 hours. 2. There is a slight chance for low precip amounts Tuesday and Wednesday. 3. We could be dry for a week as the upper-level high sets up to our west and the monsoon moisture feed is cut-off. 4. A more active pattern will set up as the high slowly moves east and allows moisture to slowly move back into the Four Corners region. — Euro ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram – This is read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and the mean of those 50 versions.

*Explanation: 1. This model and most other forecast models expect significant precip over the next 24 to 30 hours.*
*2. There is a slight chance for low precip amounts Tuesday and Wednesday.*
*3. We could be dry for a week as the upper-level high sets up to our west and the monsoon moisture feed is cut-off.*
*4. A more active pattern will start set up 11/12 Jun as the high slowly moves east and allows moisture to slowly move back into the Four Corners region.*

I will do another forecast post tomorrow afternoon. I will also work on the June summary/July outlook and hope to have that out by mid-week.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

2 Responses

Rita Peck says:

June 30, 2024 at 10:13 pm

Thank you up to date and accurate information and sharing weather

Reply
1. Arleen Pro says:
  
  June 30, 2024 at 10:14 pm
  
  You’re most welcome!
  
  Reply

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