Spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms for a while…

There were some beautiful rainbows in the area yesterday – pic taken by Edie Brogan on 6/22/2024

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Saturday – 22 June 2024 – 6:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Friday afternoon was 73 and so far today it was 76. The low this morning was 54.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 33mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
81	93/ 1954	37	23 / 1951

Precipitation summary… 3-day precip totals have exceeded the monthly average of 0.93” for the Pagosa area!

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from 0.35” to 1.62”. The big rain lottery winner was Udgar on Catchpole.*

*3-day storm totals range from 0.99” to 2.83”! Quite a few people reported 2” or more.*

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – There is less moisture than the last few days but enough continues to stream in from the southwest (green arrows) to fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms. There is considerable moisture across the southern Gulf and Mexico. Fingers of that moisture will occasionally move through the Four Corners region over the week or two. The ridge, jagged blue line, is a broad area of upper-level high pressure. — Water vapor satellite this afternoon – There is less moisture than the last few days but enough continues to stream in from the southwest (green arrows) to fuel afternoon showers and thunderstorms. There is considerable moisture across the southern Gulf and Mexico. Fingers of that moisture will occasionally move through the Four Corners region over the next two weeks. The ridge, jagged blue line, is a broad area of upper-level high pressure.

*Radar this afternoon at 4:26pm – A cell with heavy rain and pea-size hail was hitting town as I typed. The cells were moving towards the southeast.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the foreseeable future. ***

*** Wednesday and Thursday the chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase with another surge of moisture. ***

Rest of Saturday through Tuesday… Moisture and instability will gradually decrease but remain just strong enough for a few spotty afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two each afternoon.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be mostly near 15mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Sunday and Monday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Tuesday highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

Wednesday and Thursday… A surge of moisture will increase our chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Thursday highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

WPC total precip starting at midnight Sunday and ending at midnight Friday – each chart shows precip for the preceding 24-hours. Just spotty showers will light amounts occur each afternoon until Thursday when the best chance for precip occurs with 0.15” to 0.20” in the Pagosa area.

Friday and Saturday… There will be just a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or a thunderstorm as moisture decreases.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

The two-week period… It looks a lot like our monsoon. The subtropical high will try to set over the southern Plains – right where we want it. Surges of moisture will rotate around the high and into our area from the south – just as it should during the monsoon season. There’s a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms nearly every day.

*CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day precip outlooks both expect higher than average precip in our area.*

Euro ensemble meteograms for precipitable water, CAPE, and total precip. These are read left to right, and times are in Zulu. Let’s start with precipitable water: the amount of water potentially available for precip. This time of year 0.7” is marginal (the red line) and 0.08” or more is good for us to get precip. The blue arrows show the surges of moisture, but moisture stays at or above 0.8” most of the period. Next is CAPE, a measure of stability. This time of year 150 is marginal for us(red line) and anything over 250 indicates that scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely. Finally total precip is the bottom graph. Precip amounts go up very gradually until Thursday when we have the highest precipitable water in the top graph and highest CAPEs in the middle graph. Then precip levels out a couple of days while precipitable water and CAPEs decrease. Finally the last 5-7 days of the period both precipitable water and CAPEs remain high enough to indicate a good chance for scattered precip every day. This looks just how our monsoon should look. — *Euro ensemble meteograms for precipitable water, CAPE, and total precip. These are read left to right, and times are in Zulu.*

Let’s start with precipitable water: the amount of water potentially available for precip. This time of year 0.7” is marginal (the red line) and 0.08” or more is good for us to get precip. The blue arrows show the surges of moisture, but moisture stays at or above 0.8” most of the period.

*Next is CAPE, a measure of stability. This time of year 150 is marginal for us(red line) and anything over 250 indicates that scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely.*

Finally total precip is the bottom graph. Precip amounts go up very gradually until Thursday when we have the highest precipitable water in the top graph and highest CAPEs in the middle graph. Then precip levels out a couple of days while precipitable water and CAPEs decrease. Finally the last 5-7 days of the period both precipitable water and CAPEs remain high enough to indicate a good chance for scattered precip every day. This is how our monsoon should look.

Side note: We look at this stuff every day, usually twice a day. If it didn’t take so long to explain, I’d include it in posts more often!

My next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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