Best chance for showers and thunderstorms is Thursday and Sunday…

The Piedra River canyon with low clouds after the rain Saturday morning – pic taken 6/22/2024

The Piedra River canyon with low clouds after the rain Saturday morning – pic taken 6/22/2024

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Monday – 24 June 2024 – 8:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Sunday afternoon was 82 and on Monday it was 83. The low this morning was 52.

The minimum relative humidity today was 26% with a dew point of 44. Yesterday it was 19% with a dew point of 36.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 21mph and today it was 23mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
8292/ 19903826 / 1951

Precipitation summary… Most folks didn’t report any rain this morning, but a few lucky spots got 0.01” and 0.02” – just enough to wet the ground.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this evening – The high is over southern NM with clockwise flow around it (blue arrows). There is a lot of moisture to the south that will move into our area later Wednesday and Thursday.
Water vapor satellite this evening – The high is over southern NM with clockwise flow around it (blue arrows). There is a lot of moisture to the south that will move into our area later Wednesday and Thursday.

Radar this evening – A couple of cells popped up over parts of the county this afternoon. Most of the activity is to our south but will move north later Wednesday and Thursday.
Radar this evening – A couple of cells popped up over parts of the county this afternoon. Most of the activity is to our south but will move north later Wednesday and Thursday.

Forecast highlights…

*** Spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the foreseeable future. ***

*** Stronger surges of moisture will give us our best chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Sunday. ***

Tuesday… Moisture and instability remain just strong enough for a few spotty afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two Tuesday afternoon.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be mostly near 15mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

Wednesday and Thursday… A surge of moisture will increase our chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for precip is later Wednesday and then again Thursday afternoon.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Wednesday highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s. Thursday highs will be in the high 70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

WPC precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.43” in the Pagosa area.  Most of this is expected to fall between 6pm Wednesday and 6pm Thursday.
WPC precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.43” in the Pagosa area.  Most of this is expected to fall between 6pm Wednesday and 6pm Thursday.

Friday and Saturday… There will be just a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower or a thunderstorm as moisture decreases.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

Sunday and Monday… Another surge of tropical will boost our chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for precip is Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph, but isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the high 40s to mid-50s.

Euro 48-hour precip from Saturday at 6pm to Monday at 6pm shows 0.54” in the Pagosa area. Most of this is expected between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon.
Euro 48-hour precip from Saturday at 6pm to Monday at 6pm shows 0.54” in the Pagosa area. Most of this is expected between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon.

My next post will be Wednesday evening.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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