Warm and dry with breezy afternoons through Wednesday…

Still quite a bit of snow on the Continental Divide Trail near Lobo Overlook – pic taken 6/12/2024

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Saturday – 15 June 2024 – 4:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Friday afternoon was 71. The high so far today has been 80. The low this morning was 42. The cold spots were in the mid-30s.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 35mph and so far today the wind has peaked at 24mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
78	90/ 1946	36	25 / 1950

Precipitation summary… Friday there were a lot of clouds, gusty winds, and scattered showers.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from 0.04” to 0.27”. The rain lottery winner was Patty in the Chromo area.*

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – A weak trough will move through Colorado this evening. It has helped kick up a few scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly on the other side of The Divide. Drier air will move in over the next few days.

Radar this afternoon at 3:40pm – A few showers and thunderstorms have developed on the other side of The Divide and moving towards the east. Creede, South Fork, Del Norte, and Monte Vista had rain in the area today. — Radar this afternoon at 3:40pm – A few showers and thunderstorms developed on the other side of The Divide and were moving towards the east. Creede, South Fork, Del Norte, and Monte Vista had rain in the area today.

Forecast highlights…

*** Sunday through Wednesday mostly sunny and dry, temps near average, and breezy afternoons. ***

*** Chance for a decent soaking Thursday and Friday. ***

Rest of Saturday through Wednesday… The upper-level ridge will move to our east while a trough moves through the Pacific Northwest and stays well to our north. This will keep the air over us dry but will help kick up winds every afternoon.

There is a slight chance for a shower, mostly over the mountains, into early Saturday evening.

Winds… Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoons gusts will be around 25mph. Monday will have the strongest winds of the week with gusts around 30mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Thursday through Saturday… Things are trying to line up for some decent rain. Precipitable water, the amount moisture available for precip, will be around 200% of normal Thursday afternoon to Saturday morning. Cape, a measure of instability, will be well above what we need for showers and thunderstorms. It looks promising.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will mostly be 15-20mph. Isolated stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-70s to low 80s and lows will be in the mid-40s to low 50s.

WPC precip to Saturday shows 0.81” in the Pagosa area. Right now this looks reasonable, however, amounts vary considerably between forecast models:

NBM: 0.61 Euro: 1.52” GFS: 1.31” Canadian: 3.04” yeah right!

Euro ensemble: 1.30” GFS ensemble: 1.09” Canadian ensemble: 1.04”

At this point, I think most of the models are overdoing precip so I’m leaning towards the low end with the NBM and WPC. Even the lowest amount of 0.61” is a good soaking this time of year! — *WPC precip to Saturday afternoon shows 0.81” in the Pagosa area. Right now this looks reasonable, however, amounts vary considerably between forecast models:*

*NBM: 0.61 Euro: 1.52” GFS: 1.31” Canadian: 3.04” yeah right!*
*Euro ensemble: 1.30” GFS ensemble: 1.09” Canadian ensemble: 1.04”*

*At this point, I think most of the models are overdoing precip so I’m leaning towards the low end with the NBM and WPC.*
**Even the lowest amount of 0.61” is a good soaking this time of year!**

Arleen will do the next forecast post on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

2 Responses

Lisa Quinlivan says:

June 16, 2024 at 10:32 am

You guys/gal are the best. Really appreciating your information and delivery. Thank you!

Reply
1. Arleen Pro says:
  
  June 17, 2024 at 2:09 pm
  
  Awe… Thank you for your kind words, Lisa!
  
  Reply

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