Warm Thursday and then cooler with scattered rain showers on Friday…

Tommy enjoyed the view, the weather, and rolling in the snow along the CDT today – pic taken 6/12/2024

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Wednesday – 12 June 2024 – 6:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Tuesday afternoon was 84. The high on Wednesday was 87. The low this morning was 46. The cold spots were near 40.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 26mph and so far today the wind has peaked at 24mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
78	98/ 1946	35	19 / 1951

Precipitation summary… We got decent rain on Monday and then a little more on Tuesday.

11 Jun 2024 pm CoCoRaHS 24hr precip — *CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip amounts reported Tuesday morning ranged from 0.08” to 0.55”. Leo was the rain lottery winner on Catchpole.*

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip amounts reported Wednesday morning ranged from zero to 0.19”. Lisa was rain lottery winner near Mill Creek.*

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this evening – The main influence on our weather today is the high over northern Mexico and the ridge extending north towards the Four Corners. Drier, more stable air is moving in from the west. The low off the coast will move through our area Friday and bring us more clouds and scattered showers.

*Radar this evening at 5:38pm – Scattered light showers popped up on the other side of The Divide and moved east.*

Forecast highlights…

*** Thursday lots of sun and warm temps. ***

*** Friday lots of clouds, cooler temps, scattered showers and thunderstorms. ***

*** Sunday through Wednesday mostly sunny and dry, temps near average, and breezy afternoons. ***

Thursday… Drier air will move in as the ridge stays over the region. We’ll have lots of sun and temps will be 10 degrees warmer than average.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Afternoon highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Friday… Another weak low will move through the Four Corners region. Moisture and instability will increase leading to scattered afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two. The best chance for precip is late Friday morning into early Friday evening. Temps will be closer to average.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Isolated higher gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the low 70s to low 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

WPC precip to late Friday evening expects 0.07” near Pagosa and just a little more in our mountains. This lines up pretty good with my expectations, but because much of the precip will be from convective showers, amounts will vary.

Saturday through Wednesday… The upper-level ridge will move to our east while a trough moves through the Pacific Northwest and stays well to our north. This will keep the air over us dry but will help kick up winds every afternoon.

Saturday there is a slight chance for a shower, mostly over the mountains, due to residual moisture from Friday’s system, but I think most of us will stay dry.

Winds… Saturday afternoon winds will peak 15-20mph. Sunday through Wednesday, each afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

My next forecast post will be on Friday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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