A few warm days and then hopefully a few wet days…

Fantastic picture of lenticular clouds taken yesterday by Leslie – Pic taken 6/3/2024

Fantastic picture of lenticular clouds taken yesterday by Leslie – Pic taken 6/3/2024

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Tuesday – 4 June 2024 – 8:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 79. The low this morning was 49. The cold spots dipped into the low 40s.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 26mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7490/ 19463418 / 1951

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – Upper-level northwest flow is pushing a lot of mid and high clouds into our area today. A high is just beginning to build over central CA. That will move east and get stronger in our area Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture will gradually increase starting Friday as a weak low moves north towards the northern Gulf of CA.
Water vapor satellite this morning – Upper-level northwest flow is pushing a lot of mid and high clouds into our area today.
A high is just beginning to build over central CA. That will move east and get stronger in our area Wednesday and Thursday.
Moisture will gradually increase starting Friday as a weak low moves north towards the northern Gulf of CA.

There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Temps in town will be in the low 90s Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. ***

*** Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms Friday through Tuesday. ***

Rest of Tuesday through Thursday… Today we’re catching a northwestly jetstream that is pushing a lot of mid and high level clouds, through our area.  We’ll stay dry and temps will be a little warmer than yesterday.

Ridging will be build over the region Wednesday and Thursday. Upper-level winds will weaken, it will be dry, and get warmer. Temps will be 10-15 degrees above average. Thursday will be the warmest day of the season so far.

Winds… Tuesday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Wednesday and Thursday afternoons gusts will be around 15mph.

Temps… Highs Tuesday highs will be in the high 70s to high 80s and lows will be in the mid-30s to mid-40s. Wednesday and Thursday highs will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Friday through Tuesday… The subtropical ridge will set up nearly over our heads.  At the same time, a weak low will move north up the Gulf of California.

A surge of subtropical moisture will move north, between the high and the low, into our area. Things will start out slow Friday as moisture and instability gradually increase. Our best chance for showers and thunderstorms is Sunday and Monday afternoons when moisture and instability will be at their highest.

We’ll see scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two each afternoon and into the early evenings. Each day precip amounts will vary between zero and 0.20”. We’ll be playing the rain lottery.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be near 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs Friday will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to high 40s. Saturday highs will be in the low 80s to low 90s and lows will be low to high 40s. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

NBM precip to 6pm on 10 June shows 0.16” near Pagosa and up to 0.80” in the south San Juan mountains.  It’s all from spotty afternoon showers so amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip to 6pm on 11 June shows 0.16” near Pagosa and up to 0.80” in the south San Juan mountains.  It’s all from spotty afternoon showers so amounts will vary considerably.

My next forecast post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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