Warm through Saturday – Spotty raindrops possible starting Friday…

It’s too warm for me!

It’s too warm for me!

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Thursday – 6 June 2024 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature Wednesday afternoon was 86 and Thursday afternoon it was 88. The warm spots are in the mid-90s this afternoon. The low this morning was 48. The cold spots were near 40.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 20mph and so far today the wind has peaked at 20mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7592/ 19463524 / 1951

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Temps on Weather Underground Wednesday afternoon were mostly in the mid-80s to low 90s.
Temps on Weather Underground Wednesday afternoon were mostly in the mid-80s to low 90s.

Temps on Weather Underground Thursday afternoon are mostly in the mid-80s to mid-90s.
Temps on Weather Underground Thursday afternoon are mostly in the mid-80s to mid-90s.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – High pressure is over the Four Corners area. The weak low off the Mexican coast will move slowly north and continue to weaken. It will help gradually push into the region leading to spotty showers and thunderstorms.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – High pressure is over the Four Corners area. The weak low off the Mexican coast will move slowly north and continue to weaken. It will help gradually push moisture into the region leading to spotty showers and thunderstorms.

There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Temps 10-15 degrees above average through Saturday. ***

*** Hit and miss afternoon showers and thunderstorms Friday through Tuesday. Best chance is Monday. ***

Rest of Thursday… Ridging has built over the region. Upper-level winds are weak, the air is dry, and temps are warm – 10-15 degrees above average. Thursday will be the warmest day of the season so far.

Winds… Afternoons gusts will be around 15mph.

Temps… Thursday highs will be in the mid-80s to mid-90s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Friday through Tuesday… The subtropical ridge will set up nearly over our heads.  At the same time, a weak low will move north up the Gulf of California.

A weak surge of subtropical moisture will move north, between the high and the low, into our area. Things will start out slow Friday and Saturday as moisture and instability gradually increase. Our best chance for showers and thunderstorms is Monday afternoon when moisture and instability will be at their highest.

We’ll see hit and miss showers and a thunderstorm or two each afternoon and into the early evenings. Unfortunately my expectations for precip are getting lower. We’ll be playing the rain lottery.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be near 15mph, but isolated higher gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the mid-80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to high 40s. Highs Sunday will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s. Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid-70s to mid-80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

NBM precip to 6pm on 11 June shows 0.11” near Pagosa and up to 0.50” in the south San Juan mountains. Most of this will fall on Monday. The forecast models are trending down with precip totals – booo hisss. It’s all from spotty afternoon showers so amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip to 6pm on 11 June shows 0.11” near Pagosa and up to 0.50” in the south San Juan mountains. Most of this will fall on Monday.
The forecast models are trending down with precip totals – booo hisss. It’s all from spotty afternoon showers so amounts will vary considerably.

Wednesday… Drier air will move in as the ridge builds again over the region. We’ll have lots of sun and temps will be warmer.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Afternoon highs will be in the low to high 80s and lows will be in the low to high 40s.

Thursday and Friday… I’m not too sure about these days.  Some forecast models show another weak low and a little moisture moving through the area while other forecast models don’t show anything.  Let’s cheer for the low and a little moisture!

My next forecast post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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