Pagosa Weather MAY SUMMARY & June Outlook

Drought map for Colorado on 28 May 2024

Monday – 3 Jun 2024 – 8pm

May summary…

The average high for May is 68 and the average low is 30. The record high of 89 occurred on 30 May 1910. The record low of 8 occurred on 1 May 1967. Precip averages 1.26″ in May with 1.1″ of snow. May is our second driest month. Wolf Creek Pass averages 2.05″ of precip and 12.9″ of snow.

At Stevens Field the highest temp in May was 78 on the 28th and the lowest temp was 27 on the 6th and 7th.

How did we do?

***May mean temperature anomalies near Pagosa Springs were 1-3 degrees below normal.***

May mean precip anomalies were 30-50% of average near Pagosa Springs. Towards Arboles they were 11-20%. — ***May mean precip anomalies were 30-50% of average near Pagosa Springs. Towards Arboles they were 11-20%***.

***CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 0.33″ to 1.52″. 15 out of 17 locations had less than the average of 1.26″.***

***We got 7.35″ of precip so far in 2024 – less than the average of 8.51″***

Snowpack, Drought, River Flow, and Lake Levels…

Snowpack for the upper San Juan basin is at 36%. Other than upper Rio Grande and upper San Juan basins, Colorado is doing quite well. Most of the Colorado basins continued to add snowpack through May while we went backwards.

***The Colorado drought map is on top. More of Archuleta County is rated “moderate drought” compared to a month ago.***

San Juan River flow in May had minimum flow of 505cfs on 13 May and maximum flow of 1,650cfs on 19 May. A couple of multi-day periods with temps below average helped prolong run-off. The highest flow for this run-off season was 1,740cfs on 24 Apr. — ***For May, San Juan River flow had a minimum flow of 505cfs on 13 May and a maximum flow of 1,650cfs on 19 May. A couple of multi-day periods with temps below average helped prolong run-off.***
***The highest flow for the 2024 run-off season was 1,740cfs on 24 Apr.***

Lake levels in the Upper Colorado River Basin currently average 80.19%. Navajo Reservoir is at 68.7% – a gain of 5.3% and 8 and half feet from its low on 12 Apr. Lake levels for many of the upper Colorado River Basin lakes will have their biggest rises during June. — ***Lake levels in the Upper Colorado River Basin currently average 80.19%. Navajo Reservoir is at 68.7% – a gain of 5.3% and 8.4 feet from its low on 12 Apr.***
***Lake levels for many of the upper Colorado River Basin lakes will have their biggest rises during June.***

June outlook…

The average high for June is 78 and the average low is 36. The record high of 101 occurred on 30 June 1934. The record low of 20 occurred on 2 June 1908. Precip averages 0.93″ in June with zero snow. June is our driest month. Wolf Creek Pass averages 1.74″ of precip and 1.2″ of snow.

The CPC temp outlook for June on the left shows a 50-60% chance for above average temps.
The precip outlook on the right expects "equal chances" for average precip. — ***The CPC temp outlook for June on the left shows a 50-60% chance for above average temps.***
***The precip outlook on the right expects “equal chances” for average precip.***

Euro ensemble precip on the left expects 0.64″ of precip for June and the GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 1.83″ – The Euro expects less than the average of 0.93″ while the GFS expects nearly double the average.

And what do we expect?

Arleen is the expert, and this is what she says…

June… welcome to the driest month of the year. Less than an inch of precipitation on average. The only good news is that it doesn’t take much to have the average rainfall of .93″. Or to get a little more. It just requires a good shower or two across the county. Looks like we’ll have some rain the first week, the middle of the month and the last week of June. My forecast is that we’ll have average precipitation for the month of June – still less than an inch. Also, we’ll see above average temperatures. We’ll stay busy looking for the ingredients that result in our summer monsoon. It looks good so far!

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!

Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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