Spotty showers this evening and then dry for a while…

It was fun hanging out with the San Juan Sled Dog pups yesterday! – Pic taken 5/19/2024

It was fun hanging out with the San Juan Sled Dog pups yesterday! – Pic taken 5/19/2024

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Monday – 20 May 2024 – 1:30pm

*** We’d love to see you at our presentation this week! ***

Location: Library

Date: Thursday, 23 May

Time: 6pm

Subject: The North American Monsoon

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 71. The low this morning was 39. The cold spots dipped into the high 20s.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 29mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6980/ 19613217 / 1913

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop around noon on Monday – There is a trough to our north and another to our southwest.  The trough to the southwest will move through our area late this evening.  Clouds will increase this afternoon and a few scattered showers are possible.
Water vapor satellite loop around noon on Monday – There is a trough to our northwest and another to our southwest.  The trough to the southwest will move through our area late this evening.  Clouds will increase this afternoon and a few scattered showers are possible later this evening.

There is nothing on radar in our area around noon on Monday.

Forecast highlights…

*** Spotty showers this evening and again Tuesday afternoon. ***

*** 1-2” of snow is possible above 10,000ft. ***

*** Cooler temps tomorrow. ***

*** Dry with breezy afternoons for a while. ***

Rest of Monday and Tuesday… A trough will move through this evening.  Moisture and storm energy are weak in our area but should be enough to kick up a few scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm, especially over the mountains.

Our best chance for precip is this evening and then again Tuesday afternoon. The lucky spots could get up to 0.10” but I expect most of us to get less.

Snow levels will be 9,500 to 10,000ft.  1-2” of snow is possible in the mountains.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 25-35mph. Stronger gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Lows tonight will be in the low to high 30s. Tuesday highs will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

NBM precip to Tuesday evening shows 0.03” near Pagosa and Chama, and up to 0.20” in our mountains.
NBM precip to Tuesday evening shows 0.03” near Pagosa and Chama, and up to 0.20” in our mountains.
NWS forecast model for snowfall zoomed into our area shows snow mostly above 10,000ft. 1” of snow is expected near Wolf Creek Pass and up to 2.5” is possible on the higher peaks of the South San Juans.
NWS forecast model for snowfall zoomed into our area shows snow mostly above 10,000ft. 1” of snow is expected near Wolf Creek Pass and up to 2.5” is possible on the higher peaks of the South San Juans.

Wednesday through Monday… Upper-level flow will be mostly flat, west to east, in our area. A couple of troughs will stay well to our north over WY.  The only thing we’ll get from those is gusty afternoon winds.

Winds… Gusts will be around 25mph each afternoon.

Temps… Wednesday through Monday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.

Two-week outlook… Climatologically the second half of May through June is our driest time of year.

At this point, I see no organized storms for us over the next two weeks, which is typical during this period. I do see the subtropical ridge trying to build over the region during the first week of June. This would bring us a little more moisture and instability leading to spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms – maybe a prelude to the monsoon setting up.

The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook expects “equal chances” for average precip in our area.
The CPC 8-14 day precip outlook expects “equal chances” for average precip in our area.
GFS ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram – This is read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 30 different versions of the GFS forecast model.  The bottom chart graphs the control and the mean of the 30 versions.  I closely track the mean. “1” shows the system moving through this evening. Then it’s dry 21 to 31 May. The first week of June looks more active, but precip amounts remain light.
GFS ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram – This is read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 30 different versions of the GFS forecast model.  The bottom chart graphs the control and the mean of the 30 versions.  I closely track the mean.

“1” shows the system moving through this evening.
Then it’s dry 21 to 31 May.
The first week of June looks more active, but precip amounts remain light.

My next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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