Beautiful weather for a while…

Happy pup at the lake on a beautiful morning – Pic taken 5/22/2024

Happy pup at the lake on a beautiful morning – Pic taken 5/22/2024

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Thursday – 23 May 2024 – 10:30am

*** We’d love to see you at our presentation tonight! ***

Location: Library

Date: Thursday, 23 May

Time: 6pm

Subject: The North American Monsoon

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 67. The low this morning was 33. Yesterday morning the cold spots dipped into the low 20s and this morning the cold spots were in the high 20s.

The peak wind at Stevens Field Tuesday afternoon was 40mph and Wednesday afternoon it was 32mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7085/ 19843215 / 1930

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.

Four Corners region fires and smoke… The sky is a little hazy this morning. It’s smoke from fires burning in AZ. There are 2 other fires I’m keeping an eye on for smoke: Spruce Fire near Dolores and Indios Fire in the Chama River Canyon Wilderness.

Smoke moving into our area from any of these fires is dependent on winds.  Here’s the wind direction required for us to get smoke from each fire:

AZ fires: winds from the southwest

Spruce Fire near Dolores: winds from the west

Indios Fire: winds from the south

Currently winds are blowing from the west-southwest but will gradually turn more westerly. Right now, I don’t see any significant smoke headed our way, but I’ll keep a close eye on it.

HRRR forecast smoke Thursday at 6pm shows us between smoke plumes. The red arrows show direction that the smoke plumes are headed. Flow will gradually turn more westerly so we might see more smoke from the Spruce Fire burning near Dolores, but right now I expect smoke to be “light” in our area.
HRRR forecast smoke Thursday at 6pm shows us between smoke plumes. The red arrows show direction that the smoke plumes are headed. Flow will gradually turn more westerly so we might see more smoke from the Spruce Fire burning near Dolores, but right now I expect smoke to remain “light” in our area.

Forecast discussion…

GeoColor satellite this morning – There are no clouds in our area this morning. Except for the northwest corner of Colorado, the white is snow on Colorado’s mountains. The low will stay well to our north.  The subtropical high is building well to the south. Eventually it will bring us our summer monsoon.
GeoColor satellite this morning – There are no clouds in our area this morning. Except for the northwest corner of Colorado, the white is snow on Colorado’s mountains. The low will stay well to our north.  The subtropical high is building well to the south. Eventually it will bring us our summer monsoon.

There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Beautiful weather for a while. ***

*** “Light” smoke will persist in our area due to fires burning in the Four Corners region. ***

*** Fire danger will gradually increase over the next two weeks. ***

Thursday through Wednesday… Upper-level flow will fluctuate between west to east and southwest to northeast in our area. Most of this period will be dry. However, a weak trough will move through Saturday and could kick up a shower or two, mostly over the mountains.  Consider yourself lucky if you get a few raindrops.

Good news about the winds… The upper-level gradient will weaken starting on Monday. Afternoon winds will decrease, and temps will be in the 70s. It will be really nice!

Winds… Thursday and Saturday afternoons gusts will be around 30mph. Friday and Sunday afternoons gusts will be around 25mph. Monday through Wednesday afternoon gusts will be around 15mph.

Temps… Thursday through Sunday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the low to high 30s. Monday through Wednesday highs will be in the low to high 70s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.

Two-week outlook… Climatologically the second half of May through June is our driest time of year.

At this point, I see no organized storms for us over the next two weeks, which is typical during this period. The first week of June the subtropical ridge will begin to setup over the region. If it sets up to our east, we could see more active weather. If it sets up to our west, we’ll stay dry and warm.  Right now, I think it will stay to our west – boooo hissss.

NBM precip to the morning of 3 June shows no precip in Archuleta County. A few spotty raindrops are possible, but I don’t expect any significant precip.
NBM precip to the morning of 3 June shows no precip in Archuleta County. A few spotty raindrops are possible, but I don’t expect any significant precip.
GFS ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram – This is read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 30 different versions of the GFS forecast model.  The bottom chart graphs the control and the mean of the 30 versions.  I closely track the mean. There is nothing on this meteogram that indicates appreciable precip for the next 2 weeks. I see no significant pattern change.
GFS ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram – This is read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 30 different versions of the GFS forecast model.  The bottom chart graphs the control and the mean of the 30 versions.  I closely track the mean.
There is nothing on this meteogram that indicates appreciable precip for the next 2 weeks. I see no significant pattern change.

We’re going to be hanging out with family through the weekend.  We’ll do our best to get a post or two out between now and Tuesday, but I’m not making any promises.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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