Almost Felt Like Summer Today! But Breezy…

Picture of trees in a meadow

Lovely afternoon walk today in Turkey Springs. Folks were out riding horses, jogging, and riding bikes. Click on title of post to see image)

Saturday – 18 May 2024 – 7:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 73 and today the high was 74. The low this morning was 36.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 25mph and today there was a peak gust of 29mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7084/ 19563118 / 1908

Precipitation summary… A batch of thunderstorms moved through parts of the county Thursday afternoon bringing moderate rain and small hail. The shower moved in from the northeast wrapping around a low to our south. There was not any precipitation to report on Friday.

CoCoRaHS 18 May 24 1
Richard just south of Hwy 160 was the rain lottery winner on Thursday.

Fire Update: It is that time of the year to start exercising extreme care with combustibles when outside.

Lightning associated with a thunderstorm on Tuesday, May14th, ignited a wild fire just off Forest System Road 556 on Haycamp Mesa. It is burning in a mix of Ponderosa pine, Gambel oak and aspen, about 11 miles NE of Dolores and is 68 acres in size.

“Two Interagency Hotshot Crews and two Wildland Fire Modules are assigned to the fire and additional resources have been ordered. Fire managers plan to contain the fire within roads and other pre-identified control lines to protect values at risk and achieve objectives for the fire.”

For more details, follow “USDA Forest Service – San Juan National Forest” on Facebook. 

Forecast discussion…

Satelite 18 May 24
Complex system today. A stationary front is draped across the Great Basin area and northern Colorado. It explains our multi layered clouds and winds this afternoon. But there is a ridge and high pressure building in from the southwest. There is a lot of dry air to our west.
Radar
Radar activity on MRMS this evening. There are rainshowers and thunderstorms lined up along the stationary front moving slowly to the northeast. There is nothing in our immediate area.

Forecast highlights…

*** Increasing Clouds on Monday with Thunderstorms over the mountains ***

*** Scattered Clouds on Tuesday with Isolated Snowshowers over the mountains***

*** Chill down on Tuesday ***

Sunday: High Pressure will push in and be in control. Sunny with breezy afternoon winds.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph. 

Temps… Morning Lows will be in upper 30s to low 40s. Highs will be in the upper-60s to low 70s.

Monday and Tuesday… The stationary front will sink into our area. Monday will see increasing clouds and Tuesday will be partly to mostly cloudy. Instability from the front will spark thunderstorms over the mountains but they should remain there. Cold air sinking into area will drop snow level to 9,000 feet. We’ll see snowshowers on Tuesday just over the mountains and they will be very light with little accumulation.

Winds… Afternoon gusts Monday and Tuesday will be 30-35mph. 

Temps… Lows temps will be in the mid 30s to upper 30s. Highs on Monday will be in upper 60s to low 70s. The front will be to our south on Tuesday and the a colder airmass will be in place. High temps will only be in the low 60s to mid 60s. Summer will be gone for a day.

Wednesday and Thursday… High pressure regains control though we will still be breezy.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph. 

Temps… Lows temps will be in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Highs on Wednesday will only be in mid 60s. High temps on Thursday will be in the mid-60s to upper 60s. Still not summer.

Precip
NBM model Precipitation Totals for the next 5 days only shows light precipitation over our mountains on Monday and Tuesday.

Shawn will have the next forecast out Monday morning.

– Arleen

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I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I was in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed a number of times including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, we found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!
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