Rain & Rainbows Today… Then All Sunny!

Picture of mountain

Early morning stratus clinging to Pagosa Peak after sunrise showers. (Click on title of post to see image)

Thursday – 16 May 2024 – 6:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 68 and today the high was 64. The low this morning was 43. The cold spots dipped into the low 30s.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 18mph and today there was a peak gust of 16mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6885/ 19883014 / 1916

Precipitation summary… A few spotty rainshowers and a few thunderstorms moved through parts of the county yesterday afternoon. Most of us awoke to pleasant sunrise showers this morning that deposited up to 1/3 of an inch of precipitation in some areas. And today in the mid-afternoon a line of thunderstorms with moderate rain and small hail moved through the area dropping as much as a 1/4″ rain in places.

CoCoRaHS
CoCoRaHS Reports from yesterday through this morning at 0800L. Leo on Catchpole had .36″.

Forecast discussion…

G16 sector sr band09 36fr 20240516 2002
Water Vapor Satellite this afternoon showing area f low pressure in southeast New Mexico. A upper level disturbance is wrapping around the northwest side of the low and over southwest Colorado. You can see the thunderstorms moving to the south southwest. That is an unusual pattern for here. The dry ridge is evident to the west will be moving into our area.
Radar 16 May 6pm
Radar at 6pm, Thursday evening. Most of the activity has moved to our south. A few isolated showers will move through the county later this evening.

Forecast highlights…

*** Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms today. ***

*** Warmer with pleasant temps the rest of the week and into the weekend. ***

Today… Residual moisture and instability led to spotty afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms with hail.  It’s not a monsoon pattern, but it acts a little like it.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.  Isolated higher gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s.

Friday through Monday… Ridging will be in control.  There will be scattered clouds each afternoon but we expect to stay dry. Monday is the best day to see a stray shower.  Temps will be at and slightly above average – it will be really nice! Saturday will be the warmest days with temperatures pushing into the upper 70s in some areas. It will almost feel like summer!

Winds… Afternoon gusts Friday and Saturday will be 20-25mph.  Dry air moves in on Sunday and with it our gusty winds. Gusts Sunday and Monday afternoons will be 25-30mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s and lows will be in the low 30s to low 40s.

I’ll have the next forecast out Saturday afternoon.

– Arleen

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I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I was in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed a number of times including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, we found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!
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