Spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Thursday …

One of Tommy’s favorite views. – Pic taken 5/12/2024

One of Tommy’s favorite views. – Pic taken 5/12/2024

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Tuesday – 14 May 2024 – 5:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 54 and today the high was 69. The low this morning was 36. The cold spots dipped into the low 30s.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday was 26mph and today there was a peak gust of 36mph at 1:55pm when a rainshower moved through the area.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6784/ 19843015 / 1953

Precipitation summary… Spotty showers and a few thunderstorms moved through parts of the county Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports in Archuleta County range from zero to 0.06”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports in Archuleta County range from zero to 0.06”.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop this afternoon – It’s pretty active across the region with showers and a few thunderstorms.
Water vapor satellite loop this afternoon – It’s pretty active across the region with showers and a few thunderstorms.
Radar this afternoon – At 5pm Tuesday, Archuleta County is in a donut-hole.  Showers are mostly weak and are moving towards the east-northeast.
Radar this afternoon – At 5pm Tuesday, Archuleta County is in a donut-hole.  Showers are mostly weak and are moving towards the east-northeast.

Forecast highlights…

*** Warmer with pleasant temps. ***

*** Spotty afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms through Thursday. ***

Tuesday night through Thursday… Residual moisture and instability will lead to spotty afternoon showers and a thunderstorm or two.  It’s not a monsoon pattern, but it will act a little like it. Precip amounts each day will be low and spotty.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph each day.  Isolated higher gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

NBM precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.07” near Pagosa, 0.27” for Chama, 0.02” for Bayfield, and up to 0.30” near Cumbres Pass. This is all spotty convective afternoon precip so amounts will vary considerably.
NBM precip to late Thursday evening shows 0.07” near Pagosa, 0.27” for Chama, 0.02” for Bayfield, and up to 0.30” near Cumbres Pass. This is all spotty convective afternoon precip so amounts will vary considerably.

Friday through Monday… Ridging will be in control.  We’ll see scattered clouds each afternoon, but I expect us to stay dry.  Temps will be at and slightly above average – it will be really nice!

Winds… Afternoon gusts Friday and Saturday will be 20-25mph.  Gusts Sunday and Monday afternoons will be 25-30mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 60s to high 70s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.

Arleen will do the next forecast on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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