Spring has sprung! Tommy found these beautiful trees in Bayfield – Pic taken 5/3/2024
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Saturday – 4 May 2024 – 1:00pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 66. The low this morning was 33 but the cold spots dipped into the high 20s.
The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 41mph at 3:15pm. Most gusts were in the 25-30mph range.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 64 | 84/ 1947 | 28 | 14 / 1913 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm Saturday afternoon and again Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. ***
*** Strong winds Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. ***
*** Potential for blowing dust Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. ***
Rest of Saturday… The upper-level ridge is moving to our east. Behind it we’ll see more clouds and increased instability. Spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two are possible Saturday afternoon.
Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. Isolated higher gusts are possible near showers and thunderstorms.
Temps… Saturday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the low to high 30s.
Sunday to early Monday morning… We will catch the southern end of a fairly strong spring storm as it moves quickly through the region. The best moisture and storm energy will stay to our north, so I don’t expect much precip. The easy part of the forecast is the gusty winds.
The best chance for scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm is Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning.
Precip forecast…
Valley: 0.10” of rain – the lucky spots could get up to 0.20” of rain
Valley above 7,600ft: a dusting of snow is possible early Monday morning
Mountains: 2-5” of snow above 9,500ft
Winds… Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening gusts will be 30-40mph. The windy spots could hit 45mph. Winds in the mountains will be 55-65mph.
*** Dust could get blown into our area from eastern AZ and western NM Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. ***
Temps… Highs Sunday will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday… Drier air will move in from the northwest. We’ll have partly cloudy skies and gusty afternoon winds.
Winds… *** Monday afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening winds will gust 30-40mph. The windy spots could hit 45mph. *** Wednesday afternoon winds will gust 25-30mph.
Temps… Highs Monday will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.
Right now I think this model is over-forecasting the winds, but I will keep a close on it.
Starting Thursday… A cut-off low is expected to spin over the Great Basin region for a few days. Forecast models struggle with cut-off lows because there is very limited upper-level steering. Weather associated with cut-off lows is usually confined to a small area near the low. If the low wobbles any direction, it impacts the forecast.
For now, I expect our weather to be unsettled with a chance for scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms through the weekend. Precip amounts will be low.
My next forecast post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
