Pagosa Weather APRIL SUMMARY & May Outlook

Snowpack percent of median has taken a hit over southern Colorado

Snowpack percent of median has taken a hit over southern Colorado

Thursday – 2 May 2024 – 5pm

April summary…

The average high for April is 59 and the average low is 24. The record high of 81 occurred on 30 April 1981. The record low of -4 occurred on 1 April 1980. Precip averages 1.38″ in April with 6.3″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 3.42″ of precip and 44.8″ of snow.

How did we do?

April mean temperature anomalies for southern Archuleta County were average while temps for the rest county were 1-3 degrees above normal.
April mean temperature anomalies for southern Archuleta County were average while temps for the rest county were 1-3 degrees above normal.

April mean precip anomalies were 50-70% of average for most of Archuleta County.
April mean precip anomalies were 50-70% of average for most of Archuleta County.

CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 0.41″ to 1.12″. All locations measured less than the average of 1.38″.
CoCoRaHS precip totals ranged from 0.41″ to 1.12″. All locations measured less than the average of 1.38″.

We got 6.50″ of precip so far in 2024 – less than the average of 7.25″
We got 6.50″ of precip so far in 2024 – less than the average of 7.25″

CoCoRaHS snow totals ranged from 3″ to 6.7″. 3 out of 12 locations reported more than the average of 6.3″.
CoCoRaHS snow totals ranged from 3″ to 6.7″. 3 out of 12 locations reported more than the average of 6.3″.

We’ve received 75.4″ of snowfall so far this year – well below the average of 100.3″
We’ve received 75.4″ of snowfall so far this year – well below the average of 100.3″

Wolf Creek Ski Area ended up with 325" of snow for the season – 35″ less than average.
Wolf Creek Ski Area ended up with 325″ of snow for the season – 35″ less than average.

Snowpack, Drought, River Flow, and Lake Levels…

On the left is percent of median snowpack on 29 Apr and on the right is 15 Apr.
On the left is percent of median snowpack on 29 Apr and on the right is 15 Apr.

On the left is percent of median snowpack on 29 Apr and on the right is 15 Apr.
On the left is percent of median snowpack on 29 Apr and on the right is 15 Apr.

The Upper San Juan snotel is 71% of the median for the date. Wolf Creek Summit is 63% of the median for the date.
The Upper San Juan snotel is 71% of the median for the date. Wolf Creek Summit is 63% of the median for the date.

Most of Archuleta County is considered “abnormally dry”.
Most of Archuleta County is considered “abnormally dry”.

San Juan River flow in April had minimum flow of 102cfs on 2 Apr and maximum flow of 1,740cfs on 24 Apr.
San Juan River flow in April had minimum flow of 102cfs on 2 Apr and maximum flow of 1,740cfs on 24 Apr.

Lake levels in the Upper Colorado River Basin currently average 78.29%. Navajo Reservoir is at 65.35% - a gain of 2% since 1 Apr.
Lake levels in the Upper Colorado River Basin currently average 78.29%. Navajo Reservoir is at 65.35% – a gain of 2% since 1 Apr.

May outlook…

The average high for May is 68 and the average low is 30. The record high of 89 occurred on 30 May 1910. The record low of 8 occurred on 1 May 1967. Precip averages 1.26″ in May with 1.1″ of snow. May is our second driest month. Wolf Creek Pass averages 2.05″ of precip and 12.9″ of snow.

The CPC temp outlook for May on the left expects “equal chances” for average temps. The precip outlook on the right is “leaning” towards below average precip.
The CPC temp outlook for May on the left expects “equal chances” for average temps.
The precip outlook on the right is “leaning” towards below average precip.

Euro ensemble precip on the left expects 0.94″ of precip for May and the GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 1.38″ – The Euro expects less than the average of 1.26″ while the GFS is close to average.
Euro ensemble precip on the left expects 0.94″ of precip for May and the GFS ensemble precip on the right expects 1.38″ – The Euro expects less than the average of 1.26″ while the GFS is close to average.

And what do we expect?

Arleen is the expert, and this is what she says…

May is our second driest month. The polar front jet migrates north taking weather producing systems with it. The monsoon pattern does not set up till July. It doesn’t take much for us to get average precipitation. However, the next two weeks are going to be fairly dry. We might see a good system the 3rd week in May but it will likely be too little, too late.

We’ll keep some sort of gradient over us and will be breezy all month with our typical spring winds. That will keep us from getting too warm during the day and too cold at night. Expect average temperatures for the month.

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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