Winds and then more winds …

Tommy likes to “help” me fish – Pic taken 4/30/2024

Tommy likes to “help” me fish – Pic taken 4/30/2024

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Thursday – 2 May 2024 – 1:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 65. The low this morning was 32 but the cold spots dipped into the mid-20s.

The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 28mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6281/ 19812613 / 1909

Precipitation summary… A weak system moved through yesterday.  It brought us quite a few afternoon clouds but no precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Upper-level flow across the western US is flat, west to east.  The weak low off the southern CA coast will dissipate completely as it moves towards AZ.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Upper-level flow across the western US is flat, west to east.  The weak low off the southern CA coast will dissipate completely as it moves towards AZ.

There is nothing on radar this afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun with breezy afternoons the rest of the week ***

*** Strong winds with potential for blowing dust Sunday. ***

Rest of Thursday through Saturday… Upper-level flow will be flat – west to east. For us that means mostly sunny skies, no precip, and gusty afternoon winds.

Saturday afternoon we’ll see a few more clouds and a shower or two could develop over the mountains as the ridge slides to our east.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 25-30mph each day.

Temps…

Thursday highs will be in the high 50s to high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Friday highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

Saturday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

Sunday and Monday… A fairly strong spring storm will move quickly through the region.  The best moisture and storm energy will stay to our north, so I don’t expect much precip.  The easy part of the forecast is the gusty winds.

The best chance for scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm is Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. A spotty shower or two is also possible Monday afternoon, mostly over the mountains.

Precip forecast…

Valley: A few lucky folks could get up to 0.10” of rain

Mountains: 1-3” of snow above 9,500ft

Winds… Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening gusts will be 30-40mph. The windy spots could hit 45mph. Winds in the mountains will be 50-60mph. Monday afternoon winds will be 25-35mph.

*** Dust could get blown into our area from eastern AZ and western NM Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. ***

Temps… Highs Sunday will be in the low to high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s. Highs Monday will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

NBM wind gust for 3pm Sunday shows 46mph near Pagosa and Bayfield, 41mph near Chama, and 60mph in our mountains.
NBM wind gust for 3pm Sunday shows 46mph near Pagosa and Bayfield, 41mph near Chama, and 60mph in our mountains.
WPC precip to 6pm Monday shows 0.04” near Pagosa, 0.07” near Chama, and up to 0.25” in our mountains. Other forecast models expect the system to be a little farther south and show around 0.20” in our area. I’m cheering for those other models but am still skeptical.
WPC precip to 6pm Monday shows 0.04” near Pagosa, 0.07” near Chama, and up to 0.25” in our mountains.
Other forecast models expect the system to be a little farther south and show around 0.20” in our area. I’m cheering for those other models but am still skeptical.

Tuesday and Wednesday… Drier air will move in from the northwest.  We’ll have partly cloudy skies and gusty afternoon winds.

Winds… *** Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening winds will gust 30-40mph. *** Wednesday afternoon winds will gust 25-35mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the high 50 to mid-60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

My next forecast post will be on Saturday. Keep an eye out for the April Summary/May Outlook later today.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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