Spotty showers Sunday afternoon – Lots of sun and breezy rest of the week …

Mama Mia and Mater would love a home! They’re available for adoption at the Humane Society of Pagosa Springs.

Mama Mia and Mater would love a home! They’re available for adoption at the Humane Society of Pagosa Springs.

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Sunday – 28 Apr 2024 – 2:40pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 44 and the low this morning was 36.

The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 18mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6176/ 19922614 / 1991

Precipitation summary… A few scattered showers moved through the area yesterday.  Precip amounts varied quite a bit.

Based on snotel data, I estimate that Wolf Creek Pass got 5-7” of snow for the storm.

Thanks to everyone for your reports and pictures on Facebook!

CoCoRaHS 2-day precip reports range from 0.19” to 0.68”
CoCoRaHS 2-day precip reports range from 0.19” to 0.68”

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The low has moved over the northern plains. A trough, yellow dashed line, will move through our area this evening and kick up a few spotty showers.  Upper-level flow, the yellow arrows, show a flat, into the western US.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The low has moved over the northern plains. A trough, yellow dashed line, will move through our area this evening and kick up a few spotty showers.  Upper-level flow, the yellow arrows, is flat into the western US.
Radar at 2:04pm Sunday afternoon – Look close to see a few small spotty showers over Archuleta County. Shower activity will increase through the afternoon, but showers will be hit and miss.
Radar at 2:04pm Sunday afternoon – Look close to see a few small spotty showers over Archuleta County. Shower activity will increase through the afternoon, but showers will be hit and miss.

Forecast highlights…

*** Scattered showers and maybe a thunderstorm Sunday afternoon ***

*** Lots of sun with breezy afternoons the rest of the week ***

Rest of Sunday… A weak trough will move through our area this evening. There is enough moisture and instability to kick up a few spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm.

Rain, graupel, and small hail are possible in the valley while snow is also possible above 9,000ft in the mountains.

Drier, more stable air will move in tonight.

Additional Snow to Sunday evening…

Valley: no accumulation

Mountains: 1-2” but it will be spotty

Winds… Sunday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Isolated stronger gusts are possible near thunderstorms.

Temps… Highs Sunday will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

The NWS snow forecast model zoomed into our area shows nothing in the Pagosa area, and 1-2” in our mountains.
The NWS snow forecast model zoomed into our area shows nothing in the Pagosa area, and 1-2” in our mountains.
The NWS forecast precip model zoomed into our area shows 0.06” near Pagosa, 0.01” near Bayfield, 0.16” near Wolf Creek, and up to 0.20” along The Divide. *** This will be spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably. ***
The NWS forecast precip model zoomed into our area shows 0.06” near Pagosa, 0.01” near Bayfield, 0.16” near Wolf Creek, and up to 0.20” along The Divide.
*** This will be spotty convective precip so amounts will vary considerably. ***

Monday through Saturday… Upper-level flow will be flat – west to east. For us that means mostly sunny skies, no precip, and gusty afternoon winds.

Thursday we will see a few more clouds as a system skirts across northern Colorado.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 25mph each day, except for Wednesday with gusts around 30mph.

Temps…

Monday highs will be in the high 50s to high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s. 

Tuesday and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

Thursday highs will be in the high 50s to high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Friday highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

Saturday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

My next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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