Do your rain dances! …

Ominous clouds over the mountains – Pic taken 4/26/2024 at 3:10pm

Ominous clouds over the mountains – Pic taken 4/26/2024 at 3:10pm

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Friday – 26 Apr 2024 – 3:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 61 and the low this morning was 29.

The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 31mph. We hit 34mph in O’Neal Park, just north of Turkey Springs.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6174/ 19962612 / 1964

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop Friday afternoon – The low is spinning over southern. It will move nearly over our heads Saturday morning. Moisture will be increasing in our area from the southwest as the system moves east tonight.
Water vapor satellite loop Friday afternoon – The low is spinning over southern NV. It will move nearly over our heads Saturday morning. Moisture will be increasing in our area from the southwest as the system moves east tonight.
Radar this afternoon – Showers are starting to increase across southwest Colorado Friday afternoon.  The red arrows show the direction the showers are spinning around the low.
Radar this afternoon – Showers are starting to increase across southwest Colorado Friday afternoon.  The red arrows show the direction the showers are spinning around the low.

Forecast highlights…

*** A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft, which includes Wolf Creek Pass. Expect 6-12” of snow and winds gusting to 40mph valid 3pm Friday to 6am Sunday. ***

*** Wolf Creek Pass could be slick Friday night through Sunday morning. ***

Rest of Friday, Saturday, and Sunday… A low-pressure system will move through. This system has decent storm energy and moisture, so I expect us to get some precip.

Scattered showers are beginning to increase Friday afternoon and will continue to increase through the evening. The best chance for precip is late Friday evening into Saturday afternoon. Showers will become more hit and miss Saturday night and then ramp up a bit Sunday afternoon.

Isolated thunderstorms and all types of precip are possible: rain, snow, graupel, and small hail.

Snow levels are currently above 9,000ft, will drop to 7,600ft by sunrise Saturday, jump back above 8,000ft Saturday afternoon, drop to 7,800ft by sunrise Sunday, and then jump above 9,000ft Sunday afternoon.  Temps will be above freezing so snow will struggle to accumulate.

Snow amounts…

Valley below 7,600ft: mostly “rainflakes” – a dusting of snow on cold surfaces

Valley above 7,600ft: Up to 2” on cold surfaces

Mountains: 6-12”

Winds… Friday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph. Saturday and Sunday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Isolated stronger gusts are possible near thunderstorms.

Temps… Lows Friday night will be in the low 30s to low 40s. Highs Saturday will be in the low 40s to low 50s and lows will be near 30 to the high 30s.  Highs Sunday will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

NWS official snow forecast to 6am Sunday shows less than 1” for Pagosa, and 8-12” near Wolf Creek Pass.
NWS official snow forecast to 6am Sunday shows less than 1” for Pagosa, and 8-12” near Wolf Creek Pass.
The NWS snow forecast model zoomed into our area shows a dusting below 7,600ft, up to 2” along the mountains, 8” for Wolf Creek Pass, and up to 12” along The Divide.
The NWS snow forecast model zoomed into our area shows a dusting below 7,600ft, up to 2” along the mountains, 8” for Wolf Creek Pass, and up to 12” along The Divide.
The NWS forecast precip model zoomed into our area shows 0.50” near Pagosa, 0.60” near Chama, 0.40” near Bayfield, 0.90” near Wolf Creek, and up to 1.5” along The Divide.
The NWS forecast precip model zoomed into our area shows 0.50” near Pagosa, 0.60” near Chama, 0.40” near Bayfield, 0.90” near Wolf Creek, and up to 1.5” along The Divide.

Monday through Thursday… Upper-level flow will be flat – west to east. For us that means mostly sunny skies, no precip, and gusty afternoon winds.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph each day.

Temps… Highs Monday will be in the high 50s to high 60s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.  Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday highs will be in the mid-60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to high 30s.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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