We’re Pausing Spring this weekend!

picture pf river

The San Juan River is flowing & filled bank to bank with just a few fair weather cumulus around 1100L this morning. You can get a great view from the Centennial Bridge downtown near The Springs Resort. It measured 1,310 cubic feet this afternoon at the Arboles station, which is above average. It will slow down this weekend as we chill off for a few days. Shawn will have the full report in his April summary out on or soon after May 1st. (Click on title of post to see picture)

Thursday – 25 Apr 2024 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 61 and the low this morning was 36.

The peak wind at the airfield today was 31mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6275/ 19812511 / 1960

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip… yet…

Forecast discussion…

Sat 25 Apr 24 14L 1
Water vapor satellite this afternoon

Player number one is moving through today! The area of low pressure is situated just to our west. The cold front slipped through around noon bringing lots of moisture, chilly air, and an increase in winds. Player number two is an area of low pressure situated off the coast of British Columbia. It will drop rapidly to the southeast and into the trof deepening as it does.

Radar 25 Apr 24 1615L 1
Radar for all of the southwest this afternoon.

Moisture is moving into our area ahead of the area of low pressure. A combination of lifting from the low and warm surface temperatures is firing up intense showers and thunderstorms ahead of the low.

Isolated areas of thunderstorms are to our northwest, southwest and far to the west.

Forecast highlights…

*** A few spotty showers and blustery winds this afternoon ***

*** Slight chance of thunderstorms today and Friday Afternoon into overnight hours***

*** Chance for precip plus a little snow this weekend. ***

*** Wolf Creek Pass could be slick Thursday night to Sunday afternoon. ***

Thursday… A fast-moving closed area of low pressure is pushing through the area from the west. It has decent storm energy but lacks deep moisture. The day started Clear and we’re Mostly Cloudy now with a few scattered showers moving into the area. They’ll primarily impact the the mountains.

There is a slight chance for a thunderstorm or two!

The snow level will start around 9,000ft and will drop to around 8,500ft by midnight.  The few spotty snowflakes that fall in the valley won’t accumulate.  Lucky spots in the mountains will get up to 2” of snow. Wolf Creek Pass could see a few slick spots late Thursday night.

Winds… Winds are gusty this afternoon. Afternoon gusts are 20-30mph. Our mountains could see gusts in the 30-40mph range.

WInd 25 Apr 24 14L
NBM wind gusts 6pm Thursday shows 24mph near Pagosa, 21mph near Chama, 34mph near Bayfield, and up to 35mph in our mountains.

Temps… Thursday highs will be in the upper-50s to low-60s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday… The weekend will be Mostly Cloudy to Cloudy till midnight Sunday evening. The area of low pressure will move through early Friday morning. We’ll have a little calm Friday morning as a micro high moves in quickly followed by the main event; an area of low pressure that will move in from the west late Friday and finally move out of our area Sunday afternoon.

Note: We’ll see good pops of sun Sunday morning before the afternoon showers develop and skies will finally clear around midnight.

The best chance for precip is from Friday evening to Saturday afternoon.

There is a chance for a thunderstorm or two Friday afternoon and then nocturnal thunderstorms into the overnight hours and early Saturday morning. Expect small hail or graupel with these showers and thunderstorms.

Snow levels will start around 8,500ft but will drop to 8,000ft early Saturday morning.  Temps will be right at freezing. Still, snow will hardly stick in most valley areas.

*** Wolf Creek Pass could be slick Friday night to Sunday morning. ***

Snow amounts…

Valley below 8,000ft: A few snowflakes mixed with rain – Trace of snow accumulation.

Valley above 8,000ft: Trace to 2″ on cold surfaces.

Mountains: 8-12”

Precip 25 Apr 24
NBM Total Precipitation to midnight Sunday, 28 Apr, shows .51″ in Pagosa Springs, and up to 1.2″ in our mountains.
Snow 25 Apr 24
NBM Total SNOW to midnight Sunday, 28 Apr, shows .3″ in Pagosa Springs (it will melt), and up to 12″ in our mountains.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 25mph Friday & Sunday and 20mph on Saturday.

Temps… Lows in the morning will be in the low 30s. Friday highs will be in the mid-50s to low-60s. Saturday will be the chilliest with Highs in the mid-40s to low 50s. With a bit more sun, Highs on Sunday will be in the lo-50s to upper 50s.

Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday…

High pressure will once again take control of the area ushering in drier air, warmer temperatures and abundant sunshine! Skies will be Clear to Partly Cloudy.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 25mph each day.

Temps… Warming trend. Lows in the mornings at the beginning of the week will be upper 20s and into the upper 30s by mid-week. Highs will be upper 50s to mid-60s at the beginning of the week and upper 60s to mid-70s by Wednesday.

Shawn will have another post out late tomorrow afternoon.

– Arleen

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I grew up in Montana where my love of the mountains is rooted. I was in the Air Force, forecasting aviation weather, for 24 years. I had eight assignments and my favorites were Colorado, Alaska, Korea, and Germany. I deployed a number of times including to Iraq and Afghanistan. After RV traveling for nine years, we found paradise in Pagosa. Here we enjoy playing outside in the spectacular San Juan mountains!
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