Spotty raindrops this afternoon – might see snow next weekend …

There were a few light showers over the mountains this morning – Pic taken 4/20/2024

There were a few light showers over the mountains this morning – Pic taken 4/20/2024

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Saturday – 20 Apr 2024 – 9:15am

We hope to see you at the Earth Day celebration Sunday!  We’ll be set up 10am to 3pm and will have free yardsticks and stickers.  We might even do a cloud in a jar experiment for the kids!
We hope to see you at the Earth Day celebration Sunday!  We’ll be set up 10am to 3pm and will have free yardsticks and stickers.  We might even do a cloud in a jar experiment for the kids!

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 67 and the low this morning was 37.

The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 29mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6178/ 19892511 / 1941

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning … Upper-level flow is west to east across Colorado. A weak trough will miss us to the north and another weak trough will miss us to the south. There will be enough instability and moisture to kick up an afternoon shower or two.
Water vapor satellite this morning … Upper-level flow is west to east across Colorado. A weak trough will miss us to the north and another weak trough will miss us to the south. There will be enough instability and moisture to kick up an afternoon shower or two.
Radar at 7:46am Saturday morning – There are a couple of small light showers over our mountains.  Northern Colorado has been doing quite well with the moist westerly flow.
Radar at 7:46am Saturday morning – There are a couple of small light showers over our mountains.  Northern Colorado has been doing quite well with the moist westerly flow.

Forecast highlights…

*** Slight chance for a few spotty raindrops Saturday afternoon. ***

*** Chance for snow next weekend. ***

Rest of Saturday… A weak system will slide to our south while upper-level westerly flow pushes moisture across northern Colorado. We’re in the middle where not much will happen. We’ll see a few more clouds, a spotty afternoon shower or two, and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. If you get a few raindrops, consider yourself lucky!

The snow level will be 10,000ft to 10,500ft. The lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch of snow.

Winds… Saturday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

NBM precip to 10pm Saturday shows 0.02” near Pagosa, a little more closer to the mountains, and up to 0.15” in our northern mountains. Precip will be spotty.  I expect most of us to stay dry.
NBM precip to 10pm Saturday shows 0.02” near Pagosa, a little more closer to the mountains, and up to 0.15” in our northern mountains. Precip will be spotty.  I expect most of us to stay dry.

Sunday through Thursday… Ridging will build back over the region and give us lots of sun, very pleasant temps, and breezy afternoons.

Thursday a weak system will move through and bring in a few more clouds, a slight chance for a spotty afternoon shower, and stronger winds.

Winds… Sunday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph. Thursday afternoon gusts will be 25-30mph.

Temps… Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be 30 to 40. Thursday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday… A low-pressure system will move through. This system has decent storm energy and moisture, so I expect us to get some precip. Spotty showers are possible Friday and Sunday. The best chance for precip is Saturday.

Snow levels will start above 9,000ft but could drop to 8,000ft Saturday night.  Temps will be above freezing so snow will hardly stick. *** Wolf Creek Pass could be slick Friday night to Sunday morning. ***

Snow amounts…

Valley below 8,000ft: A few “rainflakes” – no snow accumulation

Valley above 8,000ft: Up to 1” on cold surfaces

Mountains: 3-7”

NBM snow to 6pm next Sunday, 28 Apr, shows a dusting above 8,000ft along the mountains, and 3-5” in our mountains. This system is still 7 days out so there are considerable differences between forecast models. We’ll adjust the details as the data gets better.
NBM snow to 6pm next Sunday, 28 Apr, shows a dusting above 8,000ft along the mountains, and 3-5” in our mountains.

This system is still 7 days out so forecast confidence in the details is low. We’ll adjust the details as the data gets better.

My next forecast post will be Monday morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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