A spotty raindrop or two this weekend …

Great spring weather for a bike ride! – Pic taken 4/18/2024

Great spring weather for a bike ride. We rode about 10 miles while Tommy ran about 15! – Pic taken 4/18/2024

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Thursday – 18 Apr 2024 – 5:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 67 and the low this morning was 31.

The peak wind at the airfield today was 39mph – a bit stronger than I expected.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6175/ 19872614 / 1970

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon … Mid and high-level clouds are moving into the region from the southwest. There is no precip associated with those clouds. The low off the west coast will move east-southeast.  It’s weak and will just get weaker over the next few days. It might cause just enough instability Saturday and Sunday afternoons to kick up a very spotty rainshower.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon … Mid and high-level clouds are moving into the region from the southwest. There is no precip associated with those clouds. The low off the west coast will move east-southeast.  It’s weak and will just get weaker over the next few days. It might cause just enough instability Saturday and Sunday afternoons to kick up a very spotty rainshower.

There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Slight chance for a few spotty raindrops this weekend. ***

Rest of Thursday through Friday… Upper-level flow will be mostly “flat” – west to east, and fairly dry. Expect quite a few mid and high level clouds, gusty afternoon winds, and dry weather.

Winds… Friday afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

Saturday and Sunday… A weak system will slide to our south while upper-level westerly flow pushes moisture across northern Colorado. We’re in the middle where not much will happen. We’ll see a few more clouds, a spotty afternoon shower or two, and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. If you get a few raindrops, consider yourself lucky!

The snow level will be 10,000ft to 10,500ft. Lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch of snow.

Winds… Saturday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph and Sunday afternoon they’ll be around 20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

NWS precip to Sunday evening shows a little precip along the mountains and up to 0.15” along The Divide.
NWS precip to Sunday evening shows a little precip along the mountains and up to 0.15” along The Divide.

Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday… Ridging will build back over the region and give us lots of sun, very pleasant temps, and breezy afternoons.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be around 25mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s and lows will be 30 to 40.

And the rest of the two-week period?… The pattern could get more active towards the end of next week and into the end of the month.

Euro ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram – This is read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 different versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of those 50 versions.  1 shows a slight chance for a few spotty raindrops this weekend. Then it’s dry the first half next week. And then it could get more active towards the end of next week and stay active through end of April.
Euro ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram – This is read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 different versions of the Euro forecast model. The bottom chart graphs the control and mean of those 50 versions.  The two vertical red lines indicate a slight chance for a few spotty raindrops this weekend. Then it’s dry the first half next week. And then it could get more active towards the end of next week and stay active through end of April.
The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day precip outlook for 26 Apr to 2 May is leaning toward above average precip for our region.
The Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day precip outlook for 26 Apr to 2 May is leaning toward above average precip for our region.

My next forecast post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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