More clouds, a little precip, and windy tomorrow …

Mater and Wrigley are wonderful pups looking for a home. They’re available for adoption at the Humane Society of Pagosa Springs – Pics taken 4/14/2024

Mater and Wrigley are wonderful pups looking for a home. They’re available for adoption at the Humane Society of Pagosa Springs – Pics taken 4/14/2024

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Sunday – 14 Apr 2024 – 4:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 64 and the low this morning was 30.

The peak wind at the airfield today was 17mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5976/ 1940237 / 1996

Precipitation summary… There hasn’t been any recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon … The ridge, jagged blue line, has moved to our east. Dry southwest flow is moving into our area ahead of the low.  The low will track to our north so we’ll hardly get any precip.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon … The ridge, jagged blue line, has moved to our east. Dry southwest flow is moving into our area ahead of the low.  The low will track to our north so we’ll hardly get any precip.

There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** More clouds, a little precip, and gusty winds on Monday  ***

*** Rest of the week will be dry with pleasant spring temps and breezy afternoons. ***

Rest of Sunday… Really nice spring weather!

Winds… Sunday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Monday … A weak system will move through. There will be more clouds, gusty winds, and spotty showers. The best chance for showers is Monday afternoon, but I think most of the valley will stay dry. The snow level could drop to 7,500ft, but temps will be in the 40s so snow won’t stick.  In mountains 1-2” of snow is possible.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 25-35mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the high teens to high 20s.

NWS forecast precip model to noon Tuesday shows up to 0.05” for the higher parts of the valley along our mountains, and up 0.20” in our mountains. This storm favors the northern mountains. This looks reasonable to me.
NWS forecast precip model to noon Tuesday shows up to 0.05” for the higher parts of the valley along our mountains, and up 0.20” in our mountains. This storm favors the northern mountains. This looks reasonable to me.
NWS forecast snow model to noon Tuesday shows none near Pagosa, and 1-2” in our mountains.
NWS forecast snow model to noon Tuesday shows none near Pagosa, and 1-2” in our mountains.
NBM wind gusts at 4pm Monday shows 35mph near Pagosa, over 50mph along our mountain ridges, and 50mph near Alamosa.
NBM wind gusts at 4pm Monday shows 35mph near Pagosa, over 50mph along our mountain ridges, and 50mph near Alamosa.

Tuesday through Friday… Upper-level flow will be mostly “flat” – west to east, and fairly dry. Expect partly cloudy skies, gusty afternoon winds, and dry weather.

Winds… Tuesday afternoon gusts will be around 20mph. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday afternoon gusts will be 20-30mph.

Temps… Tuesday highs will be in the high 50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s. The rest of the period highs will be in the low 60s to low 70s and lows will be in the high 20s to mid-30s.

Next weekend?… A weak system could move through and bring in a few more clouds, a spotty shower or two, and maybe an isolated thunderstorm. My expectations for precip are low.

My next forecast post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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