Breezy but pleasant through Sunday …

“Fair weather” cumulus clouds over Pagosa Peak this afternoon – Pic taken 4/11/2024

“Fair weather” cumulus clouds over Pagosa Peak this afternoon – Pic taken 4/11/2024

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Thursday – 11 Apr 2024 – 7:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature this afternoon was 62 and the low this morning was 27.

The peak wind at the airfield today was 20mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5777/ 1916232 / 1951

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon … There is dry, northwest flow over our area. The ridge, jagged blue line, will move through the area on Friday and the southwest flow will increase.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon … There is dry, northwest flow over our area. The ridge, jagged blue line, will move through the area on Friday and then southwest flow will increase.

There is nothing on radar in our area this afternoon.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun, dry, breezy, and pleasant spring temps through the weekend. ***

*** A weak trough will move through Friday night and then a slightly stronger one will move through on Monday. ***

Thursday through Sunday evening… An upper-level ridge will keep us mostly sunny and dry through Friday afternoon.

A weak trough will move through Friday night and bring in a few more clouds and a spotty mountain shower or two.  Snowfall will be less than an inch above 9,500ft.

A transient ridge will keep us mostly sunny and dry through Sunday evening. Winds will get more gusty Sunday afternoon.

Winds… Friday and Saturday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph. Sunday afternoon gusts will be 20-25mph.

Temps… Highs Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be 60 to 70 and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

GFS precip for Friday night shows 0.02” near Pagosa and up to 0.10” in our mountains. I think most of the valley will stay dry.
GFS precip for Friday night shows 0.02” near Pagosa and up to 0.10” in our mountains. I think most of the valley will stay dry.

Monday … A weak system will move through. There will be more clouds, gusty winds, and spotty showers. The best chance for showers is Monday afternoon. The snow level will be around 8,000ft and temps will be above freezing.  I don’t expect any snow to accumulate in the valley and 1-2” is possible in the mountains.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 20-30mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s.

GFS 24-hour precip 8am Monday to 8am Tuesday shows 0.04” near Pagosa, 0.10” near Chama, 0.02” near Bayfield, and up 0.20” in our mountains. This looks reasonable to me.
GFS 24-hour precip 8am Monday to 8am Tuesday shows 0.04” near Pagosa, 0.10” near Chama, 0.02” near Bayfield, and up 0.20” in our mountains. This looks reasonable to me.

Tuesday and Wednesday… Upper-level flow will be out of the west and fairly dry. Expect partly cloudy skies and gusty afternoon winds.

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 20-30mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

My next forecast post will be on Saturday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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