Nice spring weather this week …

Meadowlarks were serenading while I worked on this post this morning! – Pic taken April 2021

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Tuesday – 9 Apr 2024 – 9:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 47 and the low this morning was 29.

The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 16mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
57	75/ 1989	23	6 / 1973

Precipitation summary… There were a few spotty light showers over the mountains yesterday, but they didn’t amount to anything.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning … The low over southern NM is still close enough to kick up an afternoon shower or two over the mountains this afternoon. The ridge will keep us mostly sunny and dry through the rest of the week.

There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Lots of sun, dry, and pleasant spring temps through the weekend. ***

*** Potential for a weak system Monday and Tuesday. ***

Tuesday through Sunday evening… Tuesday afternoon there is a slight chance for a few spotty showers over the mountains as the low to our south moves farther out of the area. The rest of the week looks great as a ridge takes over and gives us lots of sun and pleasant spring temps.

Winds… Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday afternoon peaks will be around 15mph. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoon peaks will be 20-25mph.

Temps… Highs Tuesday will be in the low 50s to low 60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Highs Wednesday will be in the mid-50s to mid-60s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Highs Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday will be in the high 50s to high 60s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

Monday and Tuesday … Things are lining up for a system to move through. As of now, the models vary from hardly any precip to a decent spring storm. I’ll tackle the details in the next post.

Euro ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram to 23 Apr – This is read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 different versions of the Euro model. The bottom chart graphs the control and the mean of those 50 versions. 1 shows a slight potential for a little precip today. Then it’s dry through at least Friday. 2 shows a potential weak trough and light precip. Right now, the Euro is the only model indicating this so I’m skeptical. 3 shows the system on Monday and Tuesday. Amounts vary from zero precip to over a half inch. The models all show considerable variance so I have no faith in the details at this point. — Euro ensemble 24-hour precip meteogram to 23 Apr – This is read left to right and times are in Zulu. The top chart shows 24-hour precip amounts for 50 different versions of the Euro model. The bottom chart graphs the control and the mean of those 50 versions.

*1 shows a slight potential for a little precip today. Then it’s dry through at least Friday.*

*2 shows a potential weak trough and light precip. Right now, the Euro is the only model indicating this so I’m skeptical.*

*3 shows the system on Monday and Tuesday. Amounts vary from zero precip to over a half inch. The models all show considerable variance so I have no faith in the details at this point.*

*The “?” indicates that the pattern could be active but there are no organized storms and precip amounts are minimal.*

My next forecast post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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