A beautiful Pagosa Country Easter sunrise! – Thank you Maggie for the beautiful picture taken on 3/31/2024
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Sunday – 31 Mar 2024 – 9:30am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 59 and the low this morning was 35.
The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 37mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 53 | 72/ 1966 | 19 | 3 / 1931 |
Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.
Forecast discussion…
Forecast highlights…
*** Windy Sunday afternoon. ***
*** Next system will move through Sunday evening and Monday. ***
*** A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft, which includes Wolf Creek Pass. It’s for 12-20” of snow and winds gusting to 60mph valid until late Monday evening. ***
Sunday through Monday… The frontal system has slowed and weakened over AZ, but it will move through our area tonight and tomorrow.
Timing… Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two will develop late this afternoon and into early Monday morning. There will be a lull with hit and miss showers, mostly over the mountains, early Monday morning to early Monday afternoon. And then showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two will ramp up again late Monday afternoon into late Monday evening.
Snow levels… Will be around 7,800ft early Sunday morning into Sunday evening. By midnight Sunday snow levels will drop to 7,000ft, drop to around 6,000ft by sunrise Monday, and then pop up to 7,200ft by Monday afternoon. The ground is warm, and temps will be near and above freezing so snow will struggle to accumulate.
Snow amounts…
Valley below 7,400ft: up to 1”
Valley 7,400-8,000ft: up to 2”
Valley above 8,000ft: up to 3”
Mountains: 8-14”
Winds… Sunday afternoon gusts will be 30-40mph in the valley and 50-60mph in the mountains. Monday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.
Temps… Sunday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows Sunday night will be around 30 to the mid-30s. Monday highs will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the low to high 20s.
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday… Ridging will take over and give us lots of sun and pleasant spring temps.
Winds… Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph. Thursday afternoon peaks will be 15-20mph.
Temps… Highs Tuesday will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Highs Wednesday will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the low to high 20s. Highs Thursday will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows Thursday night will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.
Friday and Saturday… Another system will move through. Clouds and winds will increase through Friday afternoon.
Timing… The first few scattered showers will develop over the mountains Friday afternoon and then over the valley late Friday evening. The best chance for precip is late Friday evening to around noon Saturday. Hit and miss showers will persist into Saturday evening, mostly over the mountains.
Snow levels… Friday afternoon rain is possible up to 8,500ft. The snow level will drop to 7,500ft by midnight Friday and continue to drop to around 6,000ft by sunrise Saturday.
Snow amounts…
Valley: 1-3”
Mountains: 5-10”
Winds… Gusts in the valley will be 25-35mph and gusts in the mountains will be 45-55mph.
Temps… Highs Friday will be in the low to high 50s and lows Friday night will be in the high 20s to mid-30s. Highs Saturday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows Saturday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.
I’ll continue to adjust the details as the data gets better.
My next post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
