Windy today with showers developing later this afternoon …

A beautiful Pagosa Country Easter sunrise! – Thank you Maggie for the beautiful picture taken on 3/31/2024

A beautiful Pagosa Country Easter sunrise! – Thank you Maggie for the beautiful picture taken on 3/31/2024

 If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Sunday – 31 Mar 2024 – 9:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 59 and the low this morning was 35.

The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 37mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5372/ 1966193 / 1931

Precipitation summary… There has been no recent measurable precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning … The primary low is off the southern CA coast. A secondary low is over east-central NV.  Both lows are weakening. The trough extending south through UT and AZ will move into our area this evening. The remains of the lows and trough will be still over us Monday and cause another round of showers.
Water vapor satellite this morning … The primary low is off the southern CA coast. A secondary low is over east-central NV.  Both lows are weakening. The trough extending south through UT and AZ will move into our area this evening. The remains of the lows and trough will be still over us Monday and cause another round of showers.
Radar this morning … There is nothing in our area. Scattered showers are occurring across the desert southwest. The band of showers over central AZ will move our way this evening.
Radar this morning … There is nothing in our area. Scattered showers are occurring across the desert southwest. The band of showers over central AZ will move our way this evening.

Forecast highlights…

*** Windy Sunday afternoon. ***

*** Next system will move through Sunday evening and Monday. ***

*** A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY has been issued for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft, which includes Wolf Creek Pass. It’s for 12-20” of snow and winds gusting to 60mph valid until late Monday evening. ***

Sunday through Monday… The frontal system has slowed and weakened over AZ, but it will move through our area tonight and tomorrow.

Timing… Scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two will develop late this afternoon and into early Monday morning. There will be a lull with hit and miss showers, mostly over the mountains, early Monday morning to early Monday afternoon. And then showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two will ramp up again late Monday afternoon into late Monday evening.

Snow levels… Will be around 7,800ft early Sunday morning into Sunday evening. By midnight Sunday snow levels will drop to 7,000ft, drop to around 6,000ft by sunrise Monday, and then pop up to 7,200ft by Monday afternoon. The ground is warm, and temps will be near and above freezing so snow will struggle to accumulate.

Snow amounts…

Valley below 7,400ft: up to 1”

Valley 7,400-8,000ft: up to 2”

Valley above 8,000ft: up to 3”

Mountains: 8-14”

Winds… Sunday afternoon gusts will be 30-40mph in the valley and 50-60mph in the mountains. Monday afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Sunday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows Sunday night will be around 30 to the mid-30s. Monday highs will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the low to high 20s.

The NWS “official” snow forecast to 6am Tuesday shows around 1” near Pagosa, up to 3” for the higher parts of the valley along the mountains, and 12-18” near Wolf Creek Pass.
The NWS “official” snow forecast to 6am Tuesday shows around 1” near Pagosa, up to 3” for the higher parts of the valley along the mountains, and 12-18” near Wolf Creek Pass.
The NWS forecast model for snow zoomed into our area shows around 1” near Pagosa, 3” near Chama, less than 1” for Bayfield, and 15” near Wolf Creek Pass.
The NWS forecast model for snow zoomed into our area shows around 1” near Pagosa, 3” near Chama, less than 1” for Bayfield, and 15” near Wolf Creek Pass.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday… Ridging will take over and give us lots of sun and pleasant spring temps.

Winds… Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph. Thursday afternoon peaks will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Highs Tuesday will be in the high 40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the high teens to mid-20s. Highs Wednesday will be in the low to high 50s and lows will be in the low to high 20s. Highs Thursday will be in the mid-50s to low 60s and lows Thursday night will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

Friday and Saturday… Another system will move through. Clouds and winds will increase through Friday afternoon.

Timing… The first few scattered showers will develop over the mountains Friday afternoon and then over the valley late Friday evening. The best chance for precip is late Friday evening to around noon Saturday.  Hit and miss showers will persist into Saturday evening, mostly over the mountains.

Snow levels… Friday afternoon rain is possible up to 8,500ft. The snow level will drop to 7,500ft by midnight Friday and continue to drop to around 6,000ft by sunrise Saturday.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 1-3”

Mountains: 5-10”

Winds… Gusts in the valley will be 25-35mph and gusts in the mountains will be 45-55mph.

Temps… Highs Friday will be in the low to high 50s and lows Friday night will be in the high 20s to mid-30s. Highs Saturday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows Saturday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.

I’ll continue to adjust the details as the data gets better.

Euro 24-hour snow shows 2.6” near Pagosa, 1.2” near Chama, 2.2” near Bayfield, and 5-6” near Wolf Creek Pass. This system is still 6 days out so these amounts will change.
Euro 24-hour snow shows 2.6” near Pagosa, 1.2” near Chama, 2.2” near Bayfield, and 5-6” near Wolf Creek Pass. This system is still 6 days out so these amounts will change.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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