Scattered afternoon showers Monday and Tuesday …

Snowpack across the southwest US looks good! We’re at 110%. – end of day 24 Mar 2024

Snowpack across the southwest US looks good! We’re at 110%. – end of day 24 Mar 2024

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Monday – 25 Mar 2024 – 10:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 35 and the low this morning was 29.

The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 21mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5173/ 194018-3 / 1929

Precipitation summary… Bands of occasionally heavy snow moved through parts of the area yesterday, especially near Chromo and Chama. Most of the snow was done by sunset.

Wolf Creek reported 9” of new snow this morning and a storm total of 15”. 

THANKS to everyone for your reports and pictures on Facebook!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from 0.3” to 5”.
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from 0.3” to 5”.

CoCoRaHS 2-day snow totals range from a trace to 7.2”
CoCoRaHS 2-day snow totals range from a trace to 7.2”

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning… Cyclonic flow around the low is pushing “wrap-around” moisture into our area. The low will take that moisture with it as it continues to move farther out of the region. Residual moisture and instability will kick up scattered afternoon showers Monday and Tuesday.
Water vapor satellite this morning… Cyclonic flow around the low is pushing “wrap-around” moisture into our area. The low will take that moisture with it as it continues to move farther out of the region. Residual moisture and instability will kick up scattered afternoon showers Monday and Tuesday.
Radar this morning… Light snow is falling along the southern I-25 corridor.
Radar this morning… Light snow is falling along the southern I-25 corridor.

Forecast highlights…

*** A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is out for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft for up to an additional 6” of snow valid until 6pm Monday. ***

*** Travel conditions are sketchy in the mountains and the southern I-25 corridor. ***

Monday and Tuesday… Unsettled conditions will persist with residual moisture and instability leading to mostly cloudy skies, scattered afternoon showers, and maybe even a thunderstorm. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.

Snow amounts sunrise Monday to Tuesday evening…

Valley: up to 1” in the lucky spots each afternoon

Chromo and Chama areas: up to 2” but it will be spotty

Mountains near Wolf Creek Pass: 2-4” Monday and 1-3” Tuesday but it will be spotty

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

NWS “official” snow forecast valid from 6am Monday to 6am Tuesday shows less than 1” in the Pagosa area, 2-4” near Wolf Creek Pass and higher amounts in the southern San Juans.
NWS “official” snow forecast valid from 6am Monday to 6am Tuesday shows less than 1” in the Pagosa area, 2-4” near Wolf Creek Pass and higher amounts in the southern San Juans.
NWS 72-hour snow forecast model zoomed into our area shows up to 1” in the Pagosa area, 2” near Chama, 5” near Wolf Creek Pass, and up to 12” in the southern San Juans.
NWS 72-hour snow forecast model zoomed into our area shows up to 1” in the Pagosa area, 2” near Chama, 5” near Wolf Creek Pass, and up to 12” in the southern San Juans.

Wednesday through Saturday evening… Wednesday will be dry with partly cloudy skies as an upper-level ridge moves through.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday there will be a few more clouds and a slight chance for spotty afternoon showers over the mountains as upper-level flow increases out of the southwest ahead of the next system. Precip amounts will be minimal and very spotty.

Temps and winds will gradually increase through the period.

Winds… Afternoon gusts Wednesday and Thursday will be 15-20mph. Afternoon gusts Friday and Saturday will be 20-25mph.

Temps… Highs Wednesday will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.  Highs Thursday will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the high 40s to high 50s. Lows Friday night will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Lows Saturday night will be in the low to high 30s.

Sunday through Monday… The next system will move through. Precip amounts look similar to the system that just moved through. However, this system will be warmer resulting in more rain than snow for the valley. I’ll tackle specifics in tomorrow’s post.

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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