Winter is back! …

Fresh snow on Frosty this morning – pic taken 3/24/2024

Fresh snow on Frosty this morning – pic taken 3/24/2024

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Sunday – 24 Mar 2024 – 10:40am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 53 and the low this morning was 33.

The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 35mph at 8:35pm.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5172/ 194019-3 / 1952

Precipitation summary… The first few showers started last night around 10pm, but they were brief and didn’t amount to anything. More steady precip started falling shortly before sunrise.

Wolf Creek reported 6” of new snow this morning. 

THANKS to everyone for your reports and pictures on Facebook this morning!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from a trace to 2.2”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from a trace to 2.2”

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite loop this morning… Lots of moisture is funneling into our area ahead of the trough that’s over central AZ. The trough will move through later today.
Water vapor satellite loop this morning… Lots of moisture is funneling into our area ahead of the trough that’s over central AZ. The trough will move through later today.
Radar this morning… As usual, radar isn’t picking up most of the precip in our area.  But it is picking up heavier bands of showers moving through the Chromo and Chama areas.
Radar this morning… As usual, radar isn’t picking up most of the precip in our area.  But it is picking up heavier bands of showers moving through the Chromo and Chama areas.

Forecast highlights…

*** A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is out for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft for up to an additional 16” of snow and winds gusting to 45mph valid until 6pm Monday. ***

*** Travel conditions will be sketchy, especially in the mountains, into Monday. ***

Sunday: Snowshowers will move through in bands with brief periods of moderate to heavy snow into the late afternoon. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible.

Snow levels will be around 6,800ft through Sunday afternoon and then drop below 6,500ft after sunset. Temps will be above freezing so snow will struggle to accumulate. Spotty showers will persist through Sunday night.

Winds… Peak gusts will be 20-25mph.

Temps… Highs Sunday will be in the mid to high 30s and lows will be in the low to high 20s.

Snow amounts sunrise Sunday to sunrise Monday…

Valley below 7,600ft: 1-3”

Valley above 7,600ft: 2-5”

Mountains: 8-12”

Winds… Gusts will be 20-25mph.

Temps… Highs Sunday will be in the mid to high 30s and lows Sunday night will be in the low to high 20s.

The “official” NWS snow forecast to 6pm Monday shows 2” for Pagosa, and 12-18” near Wolf Creek Pass.
The “official” NWS snow forecast to 6pm Monday shows 2” for Pagosa, and 12-18” near Wolf Creek Pass.
NBM snow to 8am Monday shows 3.1” near Pagosa, 4.7” near Chama, 1.4” near Bayfield and up to 16” in our mountains.
NBM snow to 8am Monday shows 3.1” near Pagosa, 4.7” near Chama, 1.4” near Bayfield and up to 16” in our mountains.

Monday and Tuesday… Unsettled conditions will persist with residual moisture and instability leading to mostly cloudy skies, scattered afternoon showers, and maybe even a thunderstorm. Precip amounts will be light and spotty.

Snow amounts sunrise Monday to Tuesday evening…

Valley: up to 1” in the lucky spots each afternoon

Mountains: 1-3” each day but it will be spotty

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday… Wednesday will be dry with partly cloudy skies as an upper-level ridge moves through.

Thursday and Friday there will be a few more clouds and a slight chance for spotty afternoon showers over the mountains as upper-level flow increases out of the southwest ahead of the next system. Precip amounts will be minimal and very spotty.

Temps and winds will gradually increase through the period.

Winds… Afternoon gusts Wednesday and Thursday will be 15-20mph. Afternoon gusts Friday will be 20-25mph.

Temps… Highs Wednesday will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s.  Highs Thursday will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Highs Friday will be in the high 40s to high 50s and lows will be in the low 20s to 30s.

My next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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