Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon …

Pagosa Peak briefly popping out of the clouds yesterday – pic taken 3/25/2024

Pagosa Peak briefly popping out of the clouds yesterday – pic taken 3/25/2024

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Tuesday – 26 Mar 2024 – 9:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 38 and the low this morning was 23. The cold spots dipped into the low to mid-teens.

The peak wind at the airfield yesterday was 20mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5271/ 194018-9 / 1913

Precipitation summary… Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms hit parts of the area yesterday afternoon. Wolf Creek reported no new snow this morning.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from zero to 2.6”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from zero to 2.6”

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning… Moisture continues to move into the area from the northwest.  The ridge, jagged blue line, and jet stream, yellow arrows, will shift eastward over the next 24-48 hours.
Water vapor satellite this morning… Moisture continues to move into the area from the northwest.  The ridge, jagged blue line, and jet stream, yellow arrows, will shift eastward over the next 24-48 hours.
Radar this morning… There isn’t anything in our area.  Spotty light showers persist across the region. Radar will get more active this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms develop.
Radar this morning… There isn’t anything in our area.  Spotty light showers persist across the region. Radar will get more active this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms develop.

Forecast highlights…

*** Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms again this afternoon. ***

*** Next system will move through Sunday and Monday. ***

Tuesday… Unsettled conditions will persist with residual moisture and instability leading to mostly cloudy skies, scattered afternoon showers, and isolated thunderstorms.

Moderate to heavy snow, graupel, small hail, and lightning are possible for brief periods over small areas. “If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes!”

Snow amounts to Tuesday evening…

Valley: up to 1” in the lucky spots

Mountains: 1-3”

Winds… Afternoon gusts will be 15-20mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

NWS 72-hour snow forecast model zoomed into our area shows up to an inch of snow along the mountains, a dusting near Pagosa Springs, and 3” near Wolf Creek Pass. This is all convective, showery precip so amounts will vary considerably.
NWS 72-hour snow forecast model zoomed into our area shows up to an inch of snow along the mountains, a dusting near Pagosa Springs, and 3” near Wolf Creek Pass. This is all convective, showery precip so amounts will vary considerably.

Wednesday through Saturday evening… An upper-level ridge will be in control Wednesday, so we’ll be dry with lots of sun.

Thursday, Friday, and Saturday the ridge will be just to our east so upper-level southwest flow will increase.  We’ll see a few more clouds but I don’t expect any precip.

Temps and winds will gradually increase through the period.

Winds… Afternoon gusts Wednesday and Thursday will be 15-20mph. Afternoon gusts Friday and Saturday will be 20-25mph.

Temps… Highs Wednesday will be in the low to high 40s and lows will be in the low-teens to low-20s.  Highs Thursday will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the high 40s to high 50s. Lows Friday night will be in the low 20s to low 30s. Lows Saturday night will be in the low to high 30s.

Sunday through Monday… The next system will move through. The forecast models are struggling with precip amounts, but here’s my best guess at this time…

Timing… The first scattered showers will start over the mountains early Sunday morning and then over the valley early Sunday afternoon. The best chance for precip is Sunday evening to Monday evening. Hit and miss showers will persist into Tuesday evening.

Snow levels… Will be around 8,500ft early Sunday morning into Sunday evening. By midnight Sunday, snow levels will drop to 8,000ft, and then drop to around 7,000ft by sunrise Monday. They’ll fluctuate around 7,000ft through the rest of Monday.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 1-3”

Mountains: 6-12”

Winds… Sunday afternoon gusts will be 25-35mph in the valley and 45-55mph in the mountains. Sunday evening to Monday evening gusts will be around 20mph.

Temps… Sunday highs will be in the mid-40s to low 50s and lows Sunday night will be around 30 to the mid-30s. Monday highs will be in the low to mid-40s and lows will be in the mid-20s to low 30s.

There is still a lot of uncertainty with this system. I’ll continue to adjust the details as the data gets better.

NBM snow to Tuesday at 6pm shows 1.3” near Pagosa, 2.3” near Chama, 0.4” for Bayfield, and 10-15” in our mountains. I think this looks good for the lower elevations but is a little high for the mountains.
NBM snow to Tuesday at 6pm shows 1.3” near Pagosa, 2.3” near Chama, 0.4” for Bayfield, and 10-15” in our mountains. I think this looks good for the lower elevations but is a little high for the mountains.

My next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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