Pesky weather pattern ahead but not much precip…

Wolf Creek summit cam around 6pm Sunday

Wolf Creek summit cam around 6pm Sunday

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Monday – 4 Mar 2024 – 8:45am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 47 and the low this morning was 28.

The peak wind at the airfield was 28mph. The peak gust at Lobo Overlook was 55mph and current winds at 7:55am are out of the southwest gusting to 43mph resulting in a wind chill of -8.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4363 / 198612-25 / 1966

Precipitation summary… A little more snow fell on and off yesterday, but amounts were minimal.  Wolf Creek ended up with a storm total of 6”.

CoCoRaHS 2-day snow totals range from a trace to 1.2”
CoCoRaHS 2-day snow totals range from a trace to 1.2”

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – A weak trough, red dashed lines, will move through today and kick up a few scattered showers in the mountains. The yellow arrows show the upper-level flow.
Water vapor satellite this morning – A weak trough, red dashed lines, will move through today and kick up a few scattered showers in the mountains. The yellow arrows show the upper-level flow.
Radar this morning – There isn’t anything in our area. Snow is funneling along the I-70 corridor. Scattered showers across the northwest are moving west to east.
Radar this morning – There isn’t anything in our area. Snow is funneling along the I-70 corridor. Scattered showers across the northwest are moving west to east.

Forecast highlights…

*** Variable clouds with occasional spotty showers the rest of the week. Precip amounts will be low. ***

Rest of Monday through Wednesday afternoon… Upper-level flow goes zonal – flat, west to east with no significant ridge or trough. This will result in partly to mostly cloudy skies and very spotty showers, mostly over the mountains. For snow, the lucky spots in the valley could get a dusting and the mountains could get 1-2”.

Winds… Monday afternoon: 15-20mph. Tuesday afternoon: 10-15mph. Wednesday afternoon: 15-20mph.

Temps… Highs Monday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s, and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the low 40s to low 50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

NWS snow forecast to 5am Tuesday shows less than 1” near Pagosa and up to 2” in our mountains.
NWS snow forecast to 5am Tuesday shows less than 1” near Pagosa and up to 2” in our mountains.

Wednesday night through Saturday afternoon… The next system will move through. It’s not organized and lacks storm energy and moisture so precip amounts will be low. We’ll see quite a few clouds and an occasional spotty shower. The best chance for precip is Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 0-2”

Mountains: 4-8”

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-20mph.

Temps… Lows Wednesday night will be in the high teens to mid-20s.  Highs Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will be in the high 30s to mid-40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

NBM snowfall to 5pm Saturday shows 1.4” near Pagosa, 1.6” for Chama, and 6-10” in our mountains.
NBM snowfall to 5pm Saturday shows 1.4” near Pagosa, 1.6” for Chama, and 6-10” in our mountains.

Saturday night through Monday… A ridge will build over the region and give us more sun, dry weather, and temps near to slightly above average.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

My next post will be on Wednesday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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