Spotty showers tomorrow – better chance for showers Friday…

Turbulent clouds over the mountains yesterday – Pic taken 3/5/2024

Turbulent clouds over the mountains yesterday – Pic taken 3/5/2024

 If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Wednesday – 6 Mar 2024 – 10:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 49 and the low this morning was 28.

The peak wind at the airfield was 24mph. The peak gust at Lobo Overlook was 40mph and current winds at 9:35am are out of the southwest gusting to 24mph resulting in a wind chill of 5.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4565 / 198611-12 / 1944

Precipitation summary… There was no measurable precip in the last 24 hours.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The weak low off the CA coast will move east and will be south of us Thursday night.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The weak low off the CA coast will move east and will be south of us Thursday night.
Radar this morning – There are scattered showers over parts of CA associated with the low off the coast. 
Radar this morning – There are scattered showers over parts of CA associated with the low off the coast. 

Forecast highlights…

*** Spotty showers Thursday.  Better chance for showers Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. ***

Rest of Wednesday… Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy.  A few snowflakes are possible in the mountains with a dusting at best.

Winds… Wednesday afternoon: 15-20mph.

Temps… Highs Wednesday will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the mid-teens to low 20s.

Thursday through Saturday afternoon… Two weak systems will move through.  The first will slide to our south Thursday night and the second will move through from the northwest Friday evening. The second system has better moisture and storm energy, but a northwest trajectory is not favorable for us.

Timing… Scattered showers are possible Thursday afternoon, mostly over the mountains. A few spotty showers are possible through Thursday night, mostly over the mountains. Showers will ramp up Friday afternoon leading to our best chance for precip. An isolated thunderstorm or two is also possible. Showers will taper off early Saturday morning but could persist a little longer in the mountains.

Snow amounts… Most of this will fall Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Temps in the valley will be above freezing so snow will struggle to accumulate.

Valley: 0-2”

Mountains: 4-8”

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-20mph.

Temps… Highs Thursday, Friday, and Saturday will be in the high 30s to high 40s. Lows Thursday night will be in the mid-teens to mid-20s. Lows Friday night will be in the high teens to high 20s. Lows Saturday night will be in the low teens to low 20s.

NWS snow forecast to 5am Saturday shows less than 1” for Pagosa, up to 2” closer to the mountains, and 8-12” in our mountains. I agree with the amounts in the valley, but I think we’ll see less in the mountains.
NWS snow forecast to 5am Saturday shows less than 1” for Pagosa, up to 2” closer to the mountains, and 8-12” in our mountains.
I agree with the amounts in the valley, but I think we’ll see less in the mountains.
NBM snowfall to 11am Saturday shows 1.5” near Pagosa, 1.4” for Chama, and 5-8” in our mountains. This is what I expect for our mountains.
NBM snowfall to 11am Saturday shows 1.5” near Pagosa, 1.4” for Chama, and 5-8” in our mountains.
This is what I expect for our mountains.

Saturday night through Tuesday… A ridge will build over the region and give us more sun, dry weather, and temps near to slightly above average.

Tuesday the ridge will move to our east and we’ll see a few more clouds and a spotty shower or two in the mountains.

Winds… Afternoon peaks will be 10-15mph.

Temps… Highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Unless there are significant changes to the forecast, my next post will be Friday morning.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon