Storm cycle summary and a look at the rest of the week…

Grinch on 1 Feb and 9 Feb – 15.2” of new snow and 32” snow depth

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Sunday – 11 Feb 2024 – 10:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 32 and the low this morning was 8. The cold spots dropped to near zero.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 8mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
42	59 / 1970	6	-21 / 1949

Precipitation summary… Yesterday’s system was a dud for most of the county and Wolf Creek. The exception was the southeast 1/3 of the county where 3-4” of snow fell.

Wolf Creek reported another 1” in the last 24 hours bringing their storm cycle total to 45”.

THANKS so much for your reports!

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from a trace to 4.2”. Mike near Trujillo was the snow lottery winner – that’s a bit unusual!*

*CoCoRaHS 5-day snowfall totals across Archuleta County range from 6.1” to 17.9”*

*CoCoRaHS snowfall totals month to date across Archuleta County range from 10.4” to 23.2”*

*CoCoRaHS snow depth reports across Archuleta County range from 3” to 31”. The large range is due to the difference in elevations.*

Snowpack update…

*Colorado snowpack on 1 Feb on the left and 11 Feb on the right. Snowpack across the state is in good shape. The improvement for southwest Colorado is impressive.*

*Snotel data for our nearby basins on 1 Feb on the left and 11 Feb on the right. The Upper San Juan snotel went from 69% to 91%. The Wolf Creek Summit snotel went from 67% to 90%.*

Forecast discussion…

*Water vapor satellite this morning – Yesterday’s system has moved over southeast NM. The ridge, jagged blue line, will build over the western US and keep us dry the rest of the week.* *The yellow arrows indicate upper level flow.*

There is nothing on radar in our area this morning.

Forecast highlights…

*** Mostly sunny with near average temps the rest of the week. ***

*** More active weather pattern starting next weekend. ***

Sunday afternoon through Friday… Ridging will take over and give us lots of sun and near average temps.

Winds… Peaks will be around 10mph each afternoon.

Temps… Highs Sunday afternoon will be in the low to high 30s and lows Sunday night will be in the negative mid-single digits to high single digits. Highs Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Highs Thursday and Friday will be near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Saturday and beyond… The weather pattern will get more active. Details at this point are unreliable.

The Euro ensemble 15-day total precip meteograms for Pagosa on the top and Wolf Creek Pass on the bottom. Both show the potential for snow to start Saturday or Sunday and possibly go into the next weekend. Amounts are mostly light though with a total of 11” for Pagosa and 22” for Wolf Creek.

Arleen will do the next update tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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