A little more snow tonight and tomorrow and then a break…

The boy in his element! – Pic taken 8 Feb 2024

The boy in his element! – Pic taken 8 Feb 2024

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Friday – 9 Feb 2024 – 1:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 31 and the low this morning was 18.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 12mph but data was missing overnight. Our peak wind just north of Turkey Springs was 25mph around midnight.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4156 / 19706-26 / 1989

Precipitation summary… Snow picked up late yesterday afternoon and fell into the early morning hours. Reports this morning varied from 2” to 8”.

Wolf Creek reported another 14” in the last 24 hours bringing their storm total to 42”.

THANKS so much for your reports!

CoCoRaHS 3-day snow reports range from 3.3” to 17.4”. Robert near Hatcher is the snow lottery winner so far!
CoCoRaHS 3-day snow reports range from 3.3” to 17.4”. Robert near Hatcher is the snow lottery winner so far!
CoCoRaHS 3-day liquid equivalent totals range from 0.50” to 1.43” – That’s pretty good!
CoCoRaHS 3-day liquid equivalent totals range from 0.50” to 1.43” – That’s pretty good!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite around noon – There is quite a bit of residual moisture behind last night’s system. Tomorrow’s system will move through the area from the northwest and won’t have much moisture or storm energy.
Water vapor satellite around noon – There is quite a bit of residual moisture behind last night’s system. Tomorrow’s system will move through the area from the northwest and won’t have much moisture or storm energy.
Radar around noon – I see snowflakes outside my window at noon, but radar isn’t seeing them. There are spotty light snowshowers in the area. Looking upstream towards UT and NV, there are scattered, mostly light showers. Those will move into our area late tonight and tomorrow.
Radar around noon – I see snowflakes outside my window at noon, but radar isn’t seeing them. There are spotty light snowshowers in the area. Looking upstream towards UT and NV, there are scattered, mostly light showers. Those will move into our area late tonight and tomorrow.

Forecast highlights…

*** AVALANCHE danger in the San Juan mountains is rated “HIGH” above treeline and “CONSIDERABLE” near treeline and below. ***

*** A little more snow Saturday and then dry the rest of the week.  ***

This winter storm is sponsored by The Springs Resort!

Friday afternoon through Saturday… Residual moisture and instability will continue to kick up a few snowshowers this afternoon, but they won’t amount to much.

The next trough will move through from the northwest which isn’t favorable for us. Additionally, storm energy and moisture are weak, so my expectations are low.

The best chance for snowshowers is early Saturday morning and then again Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Showers will be hit and miss.

Snow amounts…

Valley: a dusting to 2” – it will be spotty

Mountains: 3-5”

Winds… Peaks will be 10-15mph both afternoons.

Temps… Highs Friday afternoon will be in the high 20s to mid-30s and lows Friday night will be in the high single digits to high teens.  Highs Saturday afternoon will be in the low to high 30s and lows Saturday night will be around zero to the low teens.

NWS snow forecast to 5am Sunday shows 1-2” in the Pagosa area and 4-6” in our mountains. Note that the I-25 corridor, Raton Pass, and La Veta Pass will be sketchy Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
NWS snow forecast to 5am Sunday shows 1-2” in the Pagosa area and 4-6” in our mountains. Note that the I-25 corridor, Raton Pass, and La Veta Pass will be sketchy Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

Sunday through Friday… Ridging will gradually take over. Sunday there will still be lingering clouds and a few spotty snowshowers, mostly over the mountains. The lucky spots in the mountains could get up to an inch of additional snow. 

Monday through Friday there will be fewer clouds and it will remain dry.

Winds… Peaks Sunday afternoon will be 10-15mph.  Peaks the rest of the period will be around 10mph.

Temps… Highs Sunday afternoon will be in the low to high 30s and lows Sunday night will be in the negative mid-single digits to high single digits. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Highs Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

Unless I see a big change to the forecast, my next update will be on Sunday.  I’ll include a thorough storm summary with “before and after” snowpack data.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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