Another round of snow this evening…

Frosty is up to his neck in snow. We have a 30” snow depth. That could go grow to 36” with tonight’s snow. – Pic taken 8 Feb 2024

Frosty is up to his neck in snow. Our snow depth is 30″ just north of Turkey Springs. That could grow to 36” with tonight’s snow. – Pic taken 8 Feb 2024

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Thursday – 8 Feb 2024 – 10:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temperature yesterday afternoon was 33 and the low this morning was 19.

The peak wind at Stevens Field yesterday afternoon was 30mph. Our peak wind just north of Turkey Springs was 32mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4156 / 19706-26 / 1989

Precipitation summary… Bands of snowshowers and gusty winds caused occasional white-out conditions yesterday, but the snow rarely fell long enough to pile up.

Wolf Creek reported another 16” in the last 24 hours bringing their storm total to 28”.

THANKS so much for your reports!

8 Feb 2024 am CoCoRaHS 2 day snowfall
CoCoRaHS 2-day snow reports range from 2” to 11.5”. Robert near Hatcher is the snow lottery winner so far!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – We are currently between systems but will continue to see mostly cloudy skies and occasional snowshowers into the afternoon. The low over southern NV will be near the Four Corners by 11pm tonight and will give us another round of snow this evening.
Water vapor satellite this morning – We are currently between systems but will continue to see mostly cloudy skies and occasional snowshowers into the afternoon. The low over southern NV will be near the Four Corners by 11pm tonight and will give us another round of snow this evening.
Radar at 9am this morning – Radar shows the low spinning near Vegas. The area of precip will move northeast with the low.
Radar at 9am this morning – Radar shows the low spinning near Vegas. The area of precip will move northeast with the low.

Forecast highlights…

*** A WINTER STORM WARNING has been issued by the Pueblo NWS for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft for up to 14” of snow and 50mph winds valid until 5am Friday. ***

*** An AVALANCHE WARNING has been issued for the San Juan mountains valid until 7:30am Friday. Avalanche danger is rated “high” – it’s dangerous! ***

*** Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the San Juan River basin which includes the Pagosa Springs area. 3-6” of snow with locally higher amounts is expected between 3pm Thursday & 5am Friday. ***

*** A little more snow Saturday and then dry the rest of the week.  ***

This winter storm is sponsored by The Springs Resort!

Thursday afternoon through Friday morning… Mostly cloudy skies and occasional snowshowers will increase as the day goes on. The next trough will move through Thursday night.

The heaviest snow will fall between 5pm Thursday and 1am Friday. Cold air will be in place, so snow levels won’t be a concern – yay.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 3-7”

Mountains: 10-15”

Winds… Gusts to 20mph are possible for a few hours starting around midnight as the trough moves through.

Temps… Highs Thursday afternoon will be around 30 to the mid-30s and lows Thursday night will be in the low teens to near 20.

HRRR forecast radar loop from 11am Thursday to 8am Friday – Scattered bands of mostly light snowshowers move through parts of the county all afternoon. Snow falls heaviest from roughly 8pm to 1am. Snowshowers become more scattered and gradually dissipate the rest of the night.
HRRR forecast radar loop from 11am Thursday to 8am Friday – Scattered bands of mostly light snowshowers move through parts of the county all afternoon. Snow falls heaviest from roughly 8pm to 1am. Snowshowers become more scattered and gradually dissipate the rest of the night.
NWS snow forecast to 5pm Friday shows 4-6” near Pagosa and 12-18” for our mountains
NWS snow forecast to 5pm Friday shows 4-6” near Pagosa and 12-18” for our mountains

Friday afternoon through Saturday… The next trough will move through from the northwest which isn’t favorable for us. Additionally, storm energy and moisture are weak, so my expectations are low.

Snow amounts…

Valley: a dusting to 2” – it will be spotty

Mountains: 3-5”

Winds… Peaks will be 10-15mph both afternoons.

Temps… Highs Friday afternoon will be in the high 20s to mid-30s and lows Friday night will be in the high single digits to high teens.  Highs Saturday afternoon will be in the low to high 30s and lows Saturday night will be around zero to the low teens.

NWS 24-hour snow forecast model 11pm Friday to 11pm Saturday shows 1.1” near Pagosa, 1.8” for Chama, 0.8” for Bayfield, and 3-5” in our mountains.
NWS 24-hour snow forecast model 11pm Friday to 11pm Saturday shows 1.1” near Pagosa, 1.8” for Chama, 0.8” for Bayfield, and 3-5” in our mountains.

Sunday through Friday… Ridging will gradually take over. Sunday there will still be lingering clouds and a few spotty snowshowers, mostly over the mountains. The lucky spots in the mountains could get up to an inch of additional snow. 

Monday through Friday there will be fewer clouds and it will remain dry.

Winds… Peaks Sunday afternoon will be 10-15mph.  Peaks the rest of the period will be around 10mph.

Temps… Highs Sunday afternoon will be near 30 to the high 30s and lows Sunday night will be in the negative mid-single digits to high single digits. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid-30s to low 40s and lows will be in the mid-single digits to mid-teens. Highs Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be near 40 to the mid-40s and lows will be in the low teens to low 20s.

I’ll do a quick Facebook post first thing tomorrow morning and then a more thorough post in the afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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